PnL (30d)

−$56

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-38.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

43%

38W / 50L · 20 open

Win Return (30d)

42%

45W / 63L

Trades (30d)

108

across 40 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$2.15

avg win $5 · loss $8

Profit Factor

0.51

$59 won / $115 lost

Reward / Risk

0.70

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$6

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	44.9% 294W/361L	243	$1,695
₿ Crypto	42.0% 107W/148L	92	$515
🏛 Politics	33.3% 7W/14L	23	$88
🎬 Culture	33.3% 7W/14L	21	$79
⚽ Sports	—	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	7	0.445	$2.98	$1.98	+196.7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	10	0.185	$1.87	$0.86	+85.0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in August 2026?	Yes	10	0.170	$1.75	$0.60	+51.9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	13	0.135	$1.70	$0.69	+68.8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	6	0.255	$1.61	$0.60	+59.4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	18	0.085	$1.51	$-1.10	-42.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	66	0.023	$1.51	$-0.49	-24.6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	8	0.185	$1.44	$0.43	+42.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	8	0.175	$1.35	$0.35	+34.6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	6	0.185	$1.17	$0.16	+15.6%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	10	0.116	$1.16	$0.26	+28.9%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	8	0.130	$1.09	$0.08	+8.3%
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	14	0.063	$0.91	$-0.09	-9.4%
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	1	0.867	$0.87	$0.37	+73.4%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	12	0.069	$0.86	$-0.14	-14.4%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	7	0.111	$0.75	$-0.26	-25.8%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	10	0.075	$0.75	$-0.25	-25.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	23	0.020	$0.45	$-0.55	-54.5%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	13	0.018	$0.25	$-0.75	-75.3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	8	0.021	$0.16	$-0.85	-83.8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	18	0.006	$0.12	$-0.95	-89.2%