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Trader leaderboard/ArmageddonRewardsBilly

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
Scoped to Tech — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$1,407
Tech · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$862
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-1.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
49%
455W / 466L · 1,267 open
Win Return (30d)
51%
1,105W / 1,079L · 4 open
Trades (30d)
2,188
across 219 markets · ~10 per market
EV / position
−$10.05
avg win $41 · loss $73
Profit Factor
0.69
$3,189 won / $4,596 lost
Reward / Risk
0.57
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$515
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $2,310,243 · all-time $505,893,625

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.8% 16,782W/14,423L 4565 $12,948,904
💵 Economy 53.8% 607W/521L 301 $535,105
🏛 Politics 65.0% 723W/390L 264 $611,359
🎬 Culture 45.0% 350W/428L 219 $76,347
₿ Crypto 70.2% 483W/205L 159 $364,709
⚽ Sports 58.6% 173W/122L 125 $43,361
🤖 Tech 40.7% 99W/144L 74 $52,126
🔬 Science 2 $14,654

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 264,790 0.973 $257,640.55 $1,888.48 +0.7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 300,000 0.790 $237,150.00 $87,150.00 +58.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 73,261 0.962 $70,476.76 $455.97 +0.7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 300,000 0.209 $62,850.00 $-87,149.70 -58.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 63,900 0.825 $52,717.77 $-4,021.18 -7.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 66,024 0.695 $45,880.01 $-7,174.42 -13.5%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 35,299 0.760 $26,827.22 $7,662.77 +40.0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? No 21,650 0.987 $21,369.02 $797.04 +3.9%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? No 22,788 0.875 $19,939.16 $154.14 +0.8%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 24,725 0.795 $19,656.17 $2,112.21 +12.0%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 19,020 0.875 $16,642.35 $2,101.50 +14.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 39,354 0.380 $14,954.34 $-2,433.15 -14.0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No 22,183 0.655 $14,529.79 $-708.70 -4.7%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No 15,044 0.701 $10,545.94 $-1,400.08 -11.7%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? No 10,000 0.984 $9,840.01 $218.85 +2.3%
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 25,081 0.375 $9,405.21 $790.11 +9.2%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No 14,241 0.645 $9,185.46 $-717.96 -7.2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 11,378 0.795 $9,045.88 $-176.15 -1.9%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 12,250 0.725 $8,881.42 $-784.11 -8.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 8,814 0.976 $8,597.97 $10.68 +0.1%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 12,700 0.645 $8,191.37 $-1,923.04 -19.0%
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? No 9,202 0.880 $8,097.74 $748.04 +10.2%
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 9,090 0.875 $7,953.66 $938.92 +13.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? Yes 7,164 1.000 $7,160.60 $173.07 +2.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? Yes 7,890 0.870 $6,863.99 $1,843.09 +36.7%