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Trader leaderboard/ArmageddonRewardsBilly

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$3,907
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1,328
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
57%
1,943W / 1,465L · 1,150 open
Win Return (30d)
52%
2,330W / 2,163L · 65 open
Trades (30d)
4,558
across 693 markets · ~7 per market
EV / position
−$7.25
avg win $32 · loss $50
Profit Factor
0.70
$9,059 won / $12,966 lost
Reward / Risk
0.64
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1,851
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $2,550,571 · all-time $506,129,986

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.4% 16,370W/14,285L 4423 $12,765,037
💵 Economy 41.3% 315W/447L 280 $342,772
🏛 Politics 63.4% 651W/376L 237 $531,952
🎬 Culture 65.5% 374W/197L 178 $63,907
₿ Crypto 52.4% 240W/218L 143 $195,133
⚽ Sports 59.6% 180W/122L 128 $41,694
🤖 Tech 40.1% 59W/88L 60 $44,986
🔬 Science 2 $13,802

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 400,000 0.785 $314,200.00 $114,200.00 +57.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 204,303 0.980 $200,115.20 $2,785.06 +1.4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 400,000 0.214 $85,800.00 $-114,199.60 -57.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 73,261 0.970 $71,026.22 $1,005.43 +1.4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 67,900 0.825 $56,017.77 $-4,061.12 -6.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 67,499 0.685 $46,236.97 $-7,573.95 -14.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 38,814 0.985 $38,212.30 $375.06 +1.0%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 35,299 0.760 $26,827.22 $7,662.77 +40.0%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 24,725 0.795 $19,656.17 $2,112.21 +12.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 43,354 0.385 $16,691.11 $-2,196.33 -11.6%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 19,020 0.875 $16,642.35 $2,101.50 +14.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No 22,183 0.665 $14,751.62 $-486.87 -3.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? No 14,702 0.885 $13,011.52 $246.47 +1.9%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No 15,044 0.697 $10,484.26 $-1,461.76 -12.2%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? No 10,000 0.986 $9,855.01 $233.85 +2.4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? No 9,402 0.995 $9,354.81 $421.33 +4.7%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No 14,241 0.645 $9,185.46 $-717.96 -7.2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 12,250 0.740 $9,065.18 $-600.36 -6.2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 11,378 0.795 $9,045.88 $-176.15 -1.9%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 12,700 0.655 $8,318.36 $-1,796.04 -17.8%
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? No 9,202 0.885 $8,143.75 $794.05 +10.8%
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 9,090 0.875 $7,953.66 $938.92 +13.4%
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 20,081 0.375 $7,530.21 $632.60 +9.2%
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? Yes 17,587 0.385 $6,771.05 $-975.52 -12.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? Yes 7,687 0.880 $6,764.89 $1,872.71 +38.3%