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Trader leaderboard/ArmageddonRewardsBilly

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$3,255
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$9,068
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
65%
3,348W / 1,782L · 5,468 open
Win Return (30d)
56%
5,905W / 4,613L · 80 open
Trades (30d)
10,598
across 606 markets · ~17 per market
EV / position
+$10.71
avg win $143 · loss $138
Profit Factor
1.17
$22,956 won / $19,701 lost
Reward / Risk
1.03
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1,288
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $2,277,287 · all-time $505,866,610

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.7% 16,698W/14,388L 4565 $12,948,904
💵 Economy 54.1% 601W/509L 301 $535,105
🏛 Politics 65.6% 723W/379L 264 $611,359
🎬 Culture 45.0% 350W/428L 219 $76,347
₿ Crypto 71.3% 483W/194L 159 $364,709
⚽ Sports 58.6% 173W/122L 125 $43,361
🤖 Tech 40.7% 99W/144L 74 $52,126
🔬 Science 2 $14,654

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 279,400 0.968 $270,319.88 $455.98 +0.2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 300,000 0.790 $237,150.00 $87,150.00 +58.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 73,261 0.963 $70,513.40 $492.60 +0.7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 300,000 0.209 $62,850.00 $-87,149.70 -58.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 66,024 0.695 $45,880.01 $-7,174.42 -13.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 53,900 0.845 $45,545.78 $-3,093.23 -6.4%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 35,299 0.760 $26,827.22 $7,662.77 +40.0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? No 21,650 0.988 $21,379.84 $807.87 +3.9%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? No 23,075 0.875 $20,190.51 $156.08 +0.8%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 24,725 0.795 $19,656.17 $2,112.21 +12.0%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 19,020 0.875 $16,642.35 $2,101.50 +14.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 39,354 0.385 $15,151.11 $-2,236.38 -12.9%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No 22,183 0.635 $14,086.13 $-1,152.36 -7.6%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No 15,044 0.700 $10,523.37 $-1,422.65 -11.9%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? No 10,000 0.983 $9,830.01 $208.85 +2.2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 25,081 0.375 $9,405.21 $790.11 +9.2%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No 14,241 0.645 $9,185.46 $-717.96 -7.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 8,814 0.976 $8,597.97 $10.68 +0.1%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 12,700 0.645 $8,191.37 $-1,923.04 -19.0%
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? No 9,202 0.880 $8,097.74 $748.04 +10.2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 11,378 0.700 $7,964.92 $-1,257.10 -13.6%
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 9,090 0.875 $7,953.66 $938.92 +13.4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 9,750 0.790 $7,702.69 $-72.87 -0.9%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? Yes 7,164 1.000 $7,160.60 $173.07 +2.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? Yes 7,890 0.870 $6,863.99 $1,843.09 +36.7%