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Trader leaderboard/mustbethewater

mustbethewater

0xc5187cb669690150643ba2f9aac6b7d98d212594
PnL (30d)
+$2,642
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$561
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
74%
9,311W / 3,321L · 7,392 open
Win Return (30d)
63%
12,570W / 7,381L · 73 open
Trades (30d)
20,024
across 4,818 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
+$0.79
avg win $24 · loss $83
Profit Factor
1.04
$62,906 won / $60,264 lost
Reward / Risk
0.29
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$2,353
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $190,161 · all-time $6,307,692

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 73.7% 9,311W/3,321L 4818 $937,292
⚽ Sports 83.4% 412W/82L 354 $32,897
🌤 Weather 83.1% 309W/63L 267 $14,204
🏛 Politics 67.0% 236W/116L 259 $70,349
💵 Economy 63.5% 122W/70L 138 $45,781
🎬 Culture 73.7% 143W/51L 114 $15,362
🤖 Tech 39.8% 33W/50L 59 $8,265
₿ Crypto 50.0% 12W/12L 22 $534
🔬 Science 100.0% 1W/0L 8 $191

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? Yes 150 0.991 $148.64 $135.00 +990.1%
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 143 0.932 $133.12 $126.91 +2044.8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 256 0.485 $124.13 $-8.79 -6.6%
Will Rufus Sewell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a drama series? No 126 0.977 $123.12 $17.26 +16.3%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 129 0.835 $107.53 $102.16 +1904.0%
Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No 103 0.999 $102.66 $-0.05 -0.0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes 352 0.277 $97.26 $78.75 +425.4%
Will Ipswich Town win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No 84 0.999 $83.91 $-0.04 -0.0%
Will Coventry City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No 84 0.999 $83.91 $-0.04 -0.0%
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Yes 96 0.870 $83.22 $59.31 +248.0%
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes 97 0.825 $79.92 $77.22 +2870.1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 115 0.615 $70.58 $66.48 +1622.0%
Exact Score: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen? Yes 150 0.459 $68.78 $59.95 +679.5%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes 134 0.510 $68.11 $53.27 +359.0%
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No 66 0.999 $66.00 $-0.03 -0.0%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 73 0.885 $64.30 $57.03 +785.0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes 150 0.415 $62.25 $50.71 +439.5%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 92 0.660 $60.72 $58.36 +2474.0%
Will Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections? Yes 100 0.605 $60.50 $57.87 +2199.1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 5? Yes 100 0.535 $53.50 $44.41 +488.5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 5? Yes 100 0.520 $52.00 $42.91 +472.0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 51 0.991 $50.46 $-0.02 -0.0%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 52 0.975 $50.30 $39.98 +387.2%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 50 0.998 $50.26 $-0.02 -0.0%
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? No 50 0.996 $50.16 $-0.07 -0.1%