| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
146,277 |
0.175 |
$25,598.48 |
$2,988.29 |
+13.2% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
27,496 |
0.710 |
$19,522.15 |
$5,790.98 |
+42.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
70,455 |
0.205 |
$14,443.19 |
$-14,211.60 |
-49.6% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
34,860 |
0.400 |
$13,944.18 |
$2,933.09 |
+26.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
16,232 |
0.840 |
$13,634.83 |
$1,926.26 |
+16.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
14,002 |
0.865 |
$12,111.50 |
$312.45 |
+2.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
19,762 |
0.602 |
$11,886.58 |
$197.12 |
+1.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
28,403 |
0.285 |
$8,092.06 |
$-6,350.38 |
-44.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
8,560 |
0.890 |
$7,618.18 |
$2,689.29 |
+54.6% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
10,361 |
0.715 |
$7,408.11 |
$456.74 |
+6.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
49,346 |
0.135 |
$6,661.66 |
$-11,114.17 |
-62.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
37,602 |
0.155 |
$5,828.34 |
$-2.11 |
-0.0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
7,756 |
0.675 |
$5,235.04 |
$897.43 |
+20.7% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
39,393 |
0.125 |
$4,924.16 |
$-273.70 |
-5.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
151,120 |
0.029 |
$4,306.92 |
$-1,143.07 |
-21.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
5,000 |
0.825 |
$4,125.00 |
$25.00 |
+0.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
6,499 |
0.630 |
$4,094.65 |
$1,364.68 |
+50.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
17,260 |
0.185 |
$3,193.13 |
$-4,599.73 |
-59.0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
12,087 |
0.255 |
$3,082.25 |
$-3,705.13 |
-54.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
5,559 |
0.515 |
$2,863.10 |
$807.28 |
+39.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
1,991 |
1.000 |
$1,990.47 |
$515.17 |
+34.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
33,459 |
0.055 |
$1,840.26 |
$-1,914.74 |
-51.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
1,900 |
0.935 |
$1,776.15 |
$622.59 |
+54.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
7,791 |
0.185 |
$1,441.41 |
$-2,150.43 |
-59.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
14,806 |
0.095 |
$1,406.56 |
$-2,943.81 |
-67.7% |