| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
146,277 |
0.165 |
$24,135.71 |
$1,525.52 |
+6.7% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
27,496 |
0.705 |
$19,384.67 |
$5,653.50 |
+41.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
70,455 |
0.215 |
$15,147.73 |
$-13,507.06 |
-47.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
16,232 |
0.825 |
$13,391.35 |
$1,682.78 |
+14.4% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
34,860 |
0.375 |
$13,072.67 |
$2,061.58 |
+18.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
14,002 |
0.855 |
$11,971.48 |
$172.43 |
+1.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
19,762 |
0.528 |
$10,443.99 |
$-1,245.47 |
-10.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
28,403 |
0.315 |
$8,946.99 |
$-5,495.44 |
-38.1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
8,560 |
0.890 |
$7,618.18 |
$2,689.29 |
+54.6% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
10,361 |
0.715 |
$7,408.11 |
$456.74 |
+6.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
49,346 |
0.145 |
$7,155.12 |
$-10,620.71 |
-59.7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
37,602 |
0.165 |
$6,204.36 |
$373.92 |
+6.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
39,393 |
0.135 |
$5,318.09 |
$120.23 |
+2.3% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
7,756 |
0.675 |
$5,235.04 |
$897.43 |
+20.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
151,120 |
0.032 |
$4,760.28 |
$-689.71 |
-12.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
5,000 |
0.835 |
$4,175.00 |
$75.00 |
+1.8% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
6,499 |
0.590 |
$3,834.68 |
$1,104.70 |
+40.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
17,260 |
0.215 |
$3,710.93 |
$-4,081.92 |
-52.4% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
12,087 |
0.255 |
$3,082.25 |
$-3,705.13 |
-54.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
5,559 |
0.520 |
$2,890.90 |
$835.07 |
+40.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
1,991 |
1.000 |
$1,990.47 |
$515.17 |
+34.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
33,459 |
0.055 |
$1,840.26 |
$-1,914.74 |
-51.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
1,900 |
0.940 |
$1,785.65 |
$632.09 |
+54.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
7,791 |
0.220 |
$1,714.10 |
$-1,877.73 |
-52.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
14,806 |
0.100 |
$1,480.59 |
$-2,869.78 |
-66.0% |