| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
146,277 |
0.160 |
$23,404.33 |
$794.14 |
+3.5% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
27,496 |
0.705 |
$19,384.67 |
$5,653.50 |
+41.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
70,455 |
0.215 |
$15,147.73 |
$-13,507.06 |
-47.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
16,232 |
0.825 |
$13,391.35 |
$1,682.78 |
+14.4% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
34,860 |
0.375 |
$13,072.67 |
$2,061.58 |
+18.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
14,002 |
0.870 |
$12,181.51 |
$382.46 |
+3.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
19,762 |
0.519 |
$10,256.25 |
$-1,433.21 |
-12.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
28,403 |
0.305 |
$8,662.96 |
$-5,779.47 |
-40.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
8,560 |
0.900 |
$7,703.77 |
$2,774.89 |
+56.3% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
10,361 |
0.715 |
$7,408.11 |
$456.74 |
+6.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
49,346 |
0.130 |
$6,414.93 |
$-11,360.90 |
-63.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
37,602 |
0.165 |
$6,204.36 |
$373.92 |
+6.4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
7,756 |
0.675 |
$5,235.04 |
$897.43 |
+20.7% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
39,393 |
0.125 |
$4,924.16 |
$-273.70 |
-5.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
151,120 |
0.033 |
$4,911.40 |
$-538.59 |
-9.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
5,000 |
0.840 |
$4,200.00 |
$100.00 |
+2.4% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
6,499 |
0.615 |
$3,997.16 |
$1,267.18 |
+46.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
17,260 |
0.215 |
$3,710.93 |
$-4,081.92 |
-52.4% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
12,087 |
0.255 |
$3,082.25 |
$-3,705.13 |
-54.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
5,559 |
0.525 |
$2,918.70 |
$862.87 |
+42.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
1,991 |
1.000 |
$1,990.47 |
$515.17 |
+34.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
33,459 |
0.055 |
$1,840.26 |
$-1,914.74 |
-51.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
1,900 |
0.940 |
$1,785.65 |
$632.09 |
+54.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
14,806 |
0.105 |
$1,554.62 |
$-2,795.75 |
-64.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
7,791 |
0.195 |
$1,519.32 |
$-2,072.51 |
-57.7% |