| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
146,277 |
0.165 |
$24,135.71 |
$1,525.52 |
+6.7% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
27,496 |
0.715 |
$19,659.63 |
$5,928.46 |
+43.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
70,455 |
0.215 |
$15,147.73 |
$-13,507.06 |
-47.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
16,232 |
0.835 |
$13,553.67 |
$1,845.10 |
+15.8% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
34,860 |
0.375 |
$13,072.67 |
$2,061.58 |
+18.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
14,002 |
0.855 |
$11,971.48 |
$172.43 |
+1.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
19,762 |
0.510 |
$10,086.31 |
$-1,603.16 |
-13.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
8,560 |
0.885 |
$7,575.38 |
$2,646.49 |
+53.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
28,403 |
0.265 |
$7,526.84 |
$-6,915.60 |
-47.9% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
10,361 |
0.715 |
$7,408.11 |
$456.74 |
+6.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
49,346 |
0.145 |
$7,155.12 |
$-10,620.71 |
-59.7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
37,602 |
0.155 |
$5,828.34 |
$-2.11 |
-0.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
39,393 |
0.145 |
$5,712.02 |
$514.16 |
+9.9% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
7,756 |
0.675 |
$5,235.04 |
$897.43 |
+20.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
151,120 |
0.033 |
$4,986.96 |
$-463.03 |
-8.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
5,000 |
0.835 |
$4,175.00 |
$75.00 |
+1.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
17,260 |
0.235 |
$4,056.13 |
$-3,736.72 |
-48.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
6,499 |
0.590 |
$3,834.68 |
$1,104.70 |
+40.5% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
12,087 |
0.255 |
$3,082.25 |
$-3,705.13 |
-54.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
5,559 |
0.525 |
$2,918.70 |
$862.87 |
+42.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
33,459 |
0.060 |
$2,007.56 |
$-1,747.45 |
-46.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
1,991 |
1.000 |
$1,990.47 |
$515.17 |
+34.9% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
1,900 |
0.945 |
$1,795.15 |
$641.59 |
+55.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
14,806 |
0.115 |
$1,702.68 |
$-2,647.69 |
-60.9% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
4,612 |
0.310 |
$1,429.62 |
$591.00 |
+70.5% |