Log in
Trader leaderboard/Mithrandir.

Mithrandir.

0xb17d4706e45bf0935acc338162bd40af837e59ae
Scoped to Sports — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$615
Sports · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$11
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+6.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
88%
159W / 21L · 13 open
Win Return (30d)
84%
162W / 31L
Trades (30d)
193
across 30 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
+$24.61
avg win $52 · loss $61
Profit Factor
2.67
$984 won / $368 lost
Reward / Risk
0.84
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $161,915 · all-time $1,295,254

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 58.7% 1,682W/1,181L 608 $305,760
🏛 Politics 19.7% 13W/53L 47 $16,722
🎬 Culture 15.0% 27W/153L 15 $11,099
🤖 Tech 100.0% 2W/0L 12 $1,929
💵 Economy 11 $1,489
₿ Crypto 4 $440
⚽ Sports 4 $533
🌤 Weather 1 $386
🔬 Science 1 $386

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 2,031 0.825 $1,675.78 $-11.22 -0.7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 1,672 0.925 $1,546.50 $100.25 +6.9%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? No 1,627 0.785 $1,277.26 $83.75 +7.0%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 1,846 0.625 $1,153.67 $-79.39 -6.4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 1,200 0.935 $1,122.00 $60.00 +5.6%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 1,200 0.935 $1,122.00 $48.00 +4.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 1,701 0.615 $1,045.90 $0.53 +0.1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,100 0.924 $1,016.95 $34.35 +3.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes 1,000 0.925 $925.00 $45.71 +5.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No 5,340 0.170 $907.81 $-425.37 -31.9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 925 0.980 $906.50 $57.46 +6.8%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? No 1,000 0.875 $875.00 $53.00 +6.4%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 888 0.880 $781.60 $2.66 +0.3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 800 0.945 $756.00 $36.00 +5.0%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 800 0.935 $748.00 $8.00 +1.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 1,000 0.695 $694.90 $-33.10 -4.5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? No 700 0.979 $684.95 $1.95 +0.3%
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 850 0.790 $671.48 $103.50 +18.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 1,169 0.574 $670.37 $5.21 +0.8%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 750 0.885 $663.75 $5.75 +0.9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 846 0.760 $643.08 $18.35 +2.9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 650 0.952 $618.48 $13.12 +2.2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No 710 0.865 $614.15 $83.15 +15.7%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 1,000 0.610 $609.99 $-22.00 -3.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 720 0.845 $608.01 $42.10 +7.4%