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Trader leaderboard/Mithrandir.

Mithrandir.

0xb17d4706e45bf0935acc338162bd40af837e59ae
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$3,560
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$30
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-19.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
29%
89W / 217L · 54 open
Win Return (30d)
31%
111W / 249L
Trades (30d)
360
across 51 markets · ~7 per market
EV / position
−$98.88
avg win $16 · loss $260
Profit Factor
0.09
$344 won / $3,904 lost
Reward / Risk
0.06
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$3,150
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $160,024 · all-time $1,293,362

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 58.7% 1,682W/1,181L 608 $305,760
🏛 Politics 19.7% 13W/53L 47 $16,722
🎬 Culture 15.0% 27W/153L 15 $11,099
🤖 Tech 100.0% 2W/0L 12 $1,929
💵 Economy 11 $1,489
₿ Crypto 4 $440
⚽ Sports 4 $533
🌤 Weather 1 $386
🔬 Science 1 $386

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 2,031 0.815 $1,655.27 $-31.74 -1.9%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 1,672 0.925 $1,546.50 $100.25 +6.9%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? No 1,627 0.775 $1,260.99 $67.48 +5.7%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 1,846 0.625 $1,153.67 $-79.39 -6.4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 1,200 0.935 $1,122.00 $60.00 +5.6%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 1,200 0.935 $1,122.00 $48.00 +4.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 1,701 0.620 $1,054.40 $9.03 +0.9%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,100 0.924 $1,016.95 $34.35 +3.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes 1,000 0.925 $925.00 $45.71 +5.2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 925 0.978 $904.19 $55.15 +6.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? No 1,000 0.875 $875.00 $53.00 +6.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No 5,340 0.155 $827.71 $-505.47 -37.9%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 888 0.880 $781.60 $2.66 +0.3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 800 0.945 $756.00 $36.00 +5.0%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 800 0.935 $748.00 $8.00 +1.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 1,000 0.695 $694.90 $-33.10 -4.5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? No 700 0.981 $686.70 $3.70 +0.5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 846 0.795 $672.70 $47.96 +7.7%
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 850 0.790 $671.48 $103.50 +18.2%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 750 0.885 $663.75 $5.75 +0.9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 650 0.952 $618.48 $13.12 +2.2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No 710 0.865 $614.15 $83.15 +15.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 720 0.845 $608.01 $42.10 +7.4%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 1,000 0.605 $604.99 $-27.00 -4.3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 800 0.745 $596.00 $38.00 +6.8%