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Trader leaderboard/Mithrandir.

Mithrandir.

0xb17d4706e45bf0935acc338162bd40af837e59ae
PnL (30d)
−$861
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$2,880
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
59%
1,682W / 1,171L · 1,932 open
Win Return (30d)
63%
3,003W / 1,771L · 11 open
Trades (30d)
4,785
across 608 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
−$2.77
avg win $67 · loss $144
Profit Factor
0.94
$13,995 won / $14,856 lost
Reward / Risk
0.47
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$3,426
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $157,261 · all-time $1,290,600

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 59.0% 1,682W/1,171L 608 $305,760
🏛 Politics 20.0% 13W/52L 47 $16,722
🎬 Culture 15.0% 27W/153L 15 $11,099
🤖 Tech 100.0% 2W/0L 12 $1,929
💵 Economy 11 $1,489
₿ Crypto 4 $440
⚽ Sports 4 $533
🌤 Weather 1 $386
🔬 Science 1 $386

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 2,031 0.835 $1,696.10 $9.09 +0.5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 1,672 0.925 $1,546.50 $100.25 +6.9%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 1,846 0.680 $1,255.19 $22.13 +1.8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 1,200 0.935 $1,122.00 $60.00 +5.6%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 1,200 0.935 $1,122.00 $48.00 +4.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes 1,200 0.920 $1,104.00 $48.85 +4.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 1,701 0.625 $1,062.91 $17.53 +1.7%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 1,100 0.924 $1,016.40 $33.80 +3.4%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? No 1,227 0.760 $932.58 $52.77 +6.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 925 0.979 $905.11 $56.08 +6.6%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? No 1,000 0.875 $875.00 $53.00 +6.4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 800 0.945 $756.00 $36.00 +5.0%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 800 0.935 $748.00 $8.00 +1.1%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No 3,689 0.195 $719.43 $-344.14 -32.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes 750 0.958 $718.51 $50.68 +7.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 1,000 0.705 $705.00 $-23.00 -3.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? No 700 0.980 $685.65 $2.65 +0.4%
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 850 0.790 $671.48 $103.50 +18.2%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 750 0.885 $663.75 $5.75 +0.9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 650 0.949 $616.52 $11.17 +1.8%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 688 0.885 $609.04 $6.10 +1.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 720 0.845 $608.01 $42.10 +7.4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No 710 0.855 $607.05 $76.05 +14.3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 846 0.715 $605.00 $-19.73 -3.2%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 1,000 0.605 $604.99 $-27.00 -4.3%