| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
16,000 |
0.595 |
$9,520.00 |
$1,520.00 |
+19.0% |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
16,000 |
0.405 |
$6,480.00 |
$-1,520.00 |
-19.0% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
2,150 |
0.905 |
$1,945.76 |
$683.46 |
+54.1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
1,700 |
0.835 |
$1,419.51 |
$201.37 |
+16.5% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
2,150 |
0.595 |
$1,279.25 |
$72.66 |
+6.0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.455 |
$910.00 |
$10.00 |
+1.1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
960 |
0.929 |
$892.33 |
$17.50 |
+2.0% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
1,060 |
0.555 |
$588.30 |
$41.73 |
+7.6% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
960 |
0.550 |
$528.00 |
$144.60 |
+37.7% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
960 |
0.545 |
$523.20 |
$-109.37 |
-17.3% |
| Will Meituan have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
307 |
0.961 |
$295.10 |
$-3.38 |
-1.1% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.935 |
$280.50 |
$5.50 |
+2.0% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
1,500 |
0.150 |
$225.00 |
$-48.14 |
-17.6% |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? |
No |
209 |
0.960 |
$200.66 |
$13.17 |
+7.0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
1,700 |
0.110 |
$187.00 |
$-96.57 |
-34.1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
No |
190 |
0.905 |
$171.95 |
$6.17 |
+3.7% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
178 |
0.850 |
$151.11 |
$1.78 |
+1.2% |
| Will MiniMax be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? |
No |
158 |
0.795 |
$125.44 |
$3.94 |
+3.2% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
No |
190 |
0.655 |
$124.45 |
$8.55 |
+7.4% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? |
No |
113 |
0.959 |
$108.37 |
$15.71 |
+17.0% |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
240 |
0.435 |
$104.29 |
$39.18 |
+60.2% |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
250 |
0.415 |
$103.75 |
$50.86 |
+96.2% |
| Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
240 |
0.425 |
$102.00 |
$68.15 |
+201.4% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
No |
190 |
0.515 |
$97.85 |
$4.75 |
+5.1% |
| Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.950 |
$94.64 |
$3.03 |
+3.3% |