| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
16,000 |
0.595 |
$9,520.00 |
$1,520.00 |
+19.0% |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
16,000 |
0.405 |
$6,480.00 |
$-1,520.00 |
-19.0% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
2,150 |
0.905 |
$1,945.76 |
$683.46 |
+54.1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
1,700 |
0.835 |
$1,419.51 |
$201.37 |
+16.5% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
2,150 |
0.590 |
$1,268.50 |
$61.91 |
+5.1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.455 |
$910.00 |
$10.00 |
+1.1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
960 |
0.923 |
$886.09 |
$11.26 |
+1.3% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
1,060 |
0.550 |
$583.00 |
$36.43 |
+6.7% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
960 |
0.555 |
$532.80 |
$-99.77 |
-15.8% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
960 |
0.550 |
$528.00 |
$144.60 |
+37.7% |
| Will Meituan have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
307 |
0.945 |
$290.19 |
$-8.29 |
-2.8% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.935 |
$280.50 |
$5.50 |
+2.0% |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? |
No |
209 |
0.935 |
$195.43 |
$7.94 |
+4.2% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
1,700 |
0.110 |
$187.00 |
$-96.57 |
-34.1% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
1,200 |
0.150 |
$180.00 |
$-38.51 |
-17.6% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
No |
190 |
0.895 |
$170.05 |
$4.28 |
+2.6% |
| Will MiniMax be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? |
No |
158 |
0.819 |
$129.15 |
$7.65 |
+6.3% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
No |
190 |
0.655 |
$124.45 |
$8.55 |
+7.4% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? |
No |
113 |
0.955 |
$107.92 |
$15.26 |
+16.5% |
| Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
240 |
0.435 |
$104.40 |
$70.55 |
+208.5% |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
250 |
0.415 |
$103.75 |
$50.86 |
+96.2% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
112 |
0.925 |
$103.69 |
$1.68 |
+1.6% |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
240 |
0.425 |
$101.89 |
$36.79 |
+56.5% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
No |
190 |
0.510 |
$96.90 |
$3.80 |
+4.1% |
| Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.950 |
$94.64 |
$3.03 |
+3.3% |