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Trader leaderboard/AJSV

AJSV

0xad5353afe30c2da57709e2704ef3ccdcf67eef24
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$66
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$282
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
34%
37W / 72L · 245 open
Win Return (30d)
62%
219W / 135L
Trades (30d)
354
across 88 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$1.84
avg win $15 · loss $6
Profit Factor
0.61
$102 won / $169 lost
Reward / Risk
2.52
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$82
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $179,805 · all-time $15,082,289

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.5% 5,856W/5,090L 7772 $286,492
🏛 Politics 51.3% 138W/131L 961 $25,160
💵 Economy 58.8% 144W/101L 682 $17,195
₿ Crypto 83.1% 74W/15L 380 $10,083
🤖 Tech 55.0% 33W/27L 274 $6,293
🎬 Culture 16.9% 27W/133L 81 $4,965
🔬 Science 19.0% 4W/17L 52 $1,410
🌤 Weather 23.5% 4W/13L 44 $1,010
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/1L 10 $292

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31? Yes 357 0.680 $242.76 $172.35 +244.8%
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027? No 188 0.945 $177.83 $32.88 +22.7%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? No 173 0.888 $153.95 $2.19 +1.4%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? No 155 0.968 $150.14 $80.85 +116.7%
Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat? No 156 0.943 $147.46 $-1.41 -0.9%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%? No 150 0.968 $145.03 $12.42 +9.4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? No 157 0.919 $144.74 $18.27 +14.4%
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? Yes 145 0.987 $143.06 $11.63 +8.8%
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes 154 0.915 $141.19 $17.75 +14.4%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-10 House seat? No 142 0.979 $139.16 $2.77 +2.0%
Will LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 137 0.984 $135.05 $3.09 +2.3%
Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections? No 144 0.933 $134.62 $6.89 +5.4%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31? No 146 0.923 $134.38 $2.55 +1.9%
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 130 1.000 $130.02 $38.26 +41.7%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election? No 131 0.970 $127.25 $84.12 +195.0%
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 20 Gwei before 2027? No 133 0.955 $126.89 $5.31 +4.4%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No 145 0.868 $125.65 $13.81 +12.4%
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? No 180 0.685 $123.30 $-2.70 -2.1%
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30? No 129 0.955 $123.07 $6.27 +5.4%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 130 0.947 $122.91 $71.23 +137.8%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? No 123 0.998 $122.79 $25.59 +26.3%
Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? No 133 0.921 $122.66 $3.16 +2.6%
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? No 125 0.980 $122.12 $9.50 +8.4%
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No 132 0.927 $122.11 $22.53 +22.6%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 140 0.865 $121.10 $4.90 +4.2%