PnL (30d)

+$2,760

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$180

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+11.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

87%

136W / 21L · 150 open

Win Return (30d)

55%

168W / 138L · 1 open

Trades (30d)

307

across 40 markets · ~8 per market

EV / position

+$110.41

avg win $209 · loss $100

Profit Factor

4.45

$3,561 won / $801 lost

Reward / Risk

2.09

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$411

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	50.8% 431W/417L	246	$121,869
🏛 Politics	38.7% 12W/19L	22	$5,892
🎬 Culture	18.2% 2W/9L	6	$1,348
💵 Economy	100.0% 11W/0L	6	$2,497
⚽ Sports	—	3	$811
₿ Crypto	—	2	$801

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

68 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	45,630	0.155	$7,072.62	$1,533.89	+27.7%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	9,828	0.245	$2,407.93	$294.28	+13.9%
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	17,226	0.130	$2,239.43	$-477.91	-17.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	2,538	0.795	$2,017.56	$858.02	+74.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	4,554	0.443	$2,017.33	$571.06	+39.5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	2,126	0.731	$1,554.12	$8.32	+0.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	3,912	0.305	$1,193.31	$326.81	+37.7%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?	Yes	1,315	0.815	$1,071.23	$108.64	+11.3%
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	1,594	0.615	$980.51	$310.83	+46.4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	3,264	0.255	$832.25	$-456.94	-35.4%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Yes	1,304	0.335	$436.84	$-117.46	-21.2%
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	6,244	0.051	$315.30	$-106.20	-25.2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?	No	300	0.982	$294.58	$19.40	+7.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	421	0.660	$277.71	$81.72	+41.7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	1,207	0.200	$240.87	$-201.37	-45.5%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	No	231	0.944	$218.27	$17.00	+8.4%
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?	Yes	476	0.435	$206.94	$-85.65	-29.3%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	531	0.375	$199.25	$-21.46	-9.7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?	Yes	228	0.775	$176.83	$-2.15	-1.2%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	456	0.370	$168.81	$31.94	+23.3%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?	Yes	185	0.890	$164.85	$41.66	+33.8%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	250	0.600	$150.00	$18.21	+13.8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	962	0.140	$134.73	$-67.17	-33.3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	1,905	0.070	$133.33	$-282.05	-67.9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	200	0.645	$129.00	$-1.00	-0.8%