PnL (30d)

−$215

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$79

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

71%

32W / 13L · 16 open

Win Return (30d)

52%

32W / 29L

Trades (30d)

61

across 15 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$15.33

avg win $50 · loss $103

Profit Factor

0.65

$401 won / $616 lost

Reward / Risk

0.49

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$515

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	50.8% 431W/417L	246	$121,869
🏛 Politics	38.7% 12W/19L	22	$5,892
🎬 Culture	18.2% 2W/9L	6	$1,348
💵 Economy	100.0% 11W/0L	6	$2,497
⚽ Sports	—	3	$811
₿ Crypto	—	2	$801

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

68 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	45,630	0.175	$7,985.22	$2,446.49	+44.2%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	9,828	0.245	$2,407.93	$294.28	+13.9%
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	17,226	0.135	$2,325.56	$-391.78	-14.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	2,538	0.825	$2,093.70	$934.16	+80.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	3,970	0.459	$1,820.22	$522.19	+40.2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	2,126	0.712	$1,513.72	$-32.08	-2.1%
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	2,196	0.665	$1,460.64	$307.75	+26.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	3,912	0.305	$1,193.31	$326.81	+37.7%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?	Yes	1,315	0.835	$1,097.66	$135.07	+14.0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	3,264	0.255	$832.25	$-456.94	-35.4%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Yes	1,304	0.345	$449.75	$-104.55	-18.9%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?	Yes	485	0.905	$439.12	$45.93	+11.7%
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	6,244	0.052	$327.79	$-93.72	-22.2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?	No	300	0.980	$293.98	$18.80	+6.8%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	421	0.695	$292.40	$96.41	+49.2%
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?	Yes	476	0.570	$271.11	$-21.48	-7.3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	1,207	0.205	$248.11	$-194.12	-43.9%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	418	0.541	$226.49	$-3.39	-1.5%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	No	231	0.952	$220.12	$18.85	+9.4%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	531	0.375	$199.25	$-21.46	-9.7%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	250	0.695	$173.72	$41.93	+31.8%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	456	0.370	$168.81	$31.94	+23.3%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?	Yes	228	0.700	$159.72	$-19.26	-10.8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	1,905	0.080	$152.37	$-263.01	-63.3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	962	0.135	$129.92	$-71.98	-35.7%