| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
45,630 |
0.155 |
$7,072.62 |
$1,533.89 |
+27.7% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
9,828 |
0.245 |
$2,407.93 |
$294.28 |
+13.9% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
17,226 |
0.130 |
$2,239.43 |
$-477.91 |
-17.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,538 |
0.795 |
$2,017.56 |
$858.02 |
+74.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
4,554 |
0.439 |
$1,996.84 |
$550.57 |
+38.1% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
2,126 |
0.731 |
$1,554.12 |
$8.32 |
+0.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
3,912 |
0.305 |
$1,193.31 |
$326.81 |
+37.7% |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? |
Yes |
1,315 |
0.815 |
$1,071.23 |
$108.64 |
+11.3% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
Yes |
1,594 |
0.615 |
$980.51 |
$310.83 |
+46.4% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
3,264 |
0.255 |
$832.25 |
$-456.94 |
-35.4% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
Yes |
1,304 |
0.335 |
$436.84 |
$-117.46 |
-21.2% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
6,244 |
0.051 |
$315.30 |
$-106.20 |
-25.2% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.982 |
$294.58 |
$19.40 |
+7.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
421 |
0.660 |
$277.71 |
$81.72 |
+41.7% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,207 |
0.200 |
$240.87 |
$-201.37 |
-45.5% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
No |
231 |
0.945 |
$218.50 |
$17.23 |
+8.6% |
| Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31? |
Yes |
476 |
0.435 |
$206.94 |
$-85.65 |
-29.3% |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
531 |
0.375 |
$199.25 |
$-21.46 |
-9.7% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? |
Yes |
228 |
0.775 |
$176.83 |
$-2.15 |
-1.2% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? |
Yes |
456 |
0.370 |
$168.81 |
$31.94 |
+23.3% |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? |
Yes |
185 |
0.890 |
$164.85 |
$41.66 |
+33.8% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
Yes |
250 |
0.600 |
$150.00 |
$18.21 |
+13.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
962 |
0.140 |
$134.73 |
$-67.17 |
-33.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
1,905 |
0.070 |
$133.33 |
$-282.05 |
-67.9% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.645 |
$129.00 |
$-1.00 |
-0.8% |