PnL (30d)

+$3,926

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$5,691

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+3.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

51%

431W / 417L · 513 open

Win Return (30d)

55%

746W / 614L · 1 open

Trades (30d)

1,361

across 246 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

+$21.69

avg win $102 · loss $96

Profit Factor

1.56

$10,965 won / $7,039 lost

Reward / Risk

1.05

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$694

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	50.8% 431W/417L	246	$121,869
🏛 Politics	38.7% 12W/19L	22	$5,892
🎬 Culture	18.2% 2W/9L	6	$1,348
💵 Economy	100.0% 11W/0L	6	$2,497
⚽ Sports	—	3	$811
₿ Crypto	—	2	$801

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

68 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	45,630	0.160	$7,300.77	$1,762.04	+31.8%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	9,828	0.250	$2,457.07	$343.42	+16.2%
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	17,226	0.130	$2,239.43	$-477.91	-17.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	4,554	0.469	$2,133.46	$687.18	+47.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	2,538	0.805	$2,042.94	$883.40	+76.2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	2,126	0.725	$1,540.30	$-5.50	-0.4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	3,912	0.305	$1,193.31	$326.81	+37.7%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?	Yes	1,315	0.810	$1,064.79	$102.20	+10.6%
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	1,594	0.630	$1,004.43	$334.74	+50.0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	3,264	0.255	$832.25	$-456.94	-35.4%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Yes	1,304	0.340	$443.36	$-110.94	-20.0%
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	6,244	0.050	$312.18	$-109.33	-25.9%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	421	0.705	$296.65	$100.66	+51.4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?	No	300	0.982	$294.58	$19.40	+7.0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	1,207	0.203	$244.49	$-197.75	-44.7%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	No	231	0.972	$224.75	$23.48	+11.7%
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?	Yes	476	0.435	$206.94	$-85.65	-29.3%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	531	0.375	$199.25	$-21.46	-9.7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?	Yes	228	0.785	$179.12	$0.13	+0.1%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	456	0.370	$168.81	$31.94	+23.3%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?	Yes	185	0.865	$160.22	$37.02	+30.1%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	250	0.595	$148.75	$16.96	+12.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	962	0.150	$144.36	$-57.54	-28.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	1,905	0.070	$133.33	$-282.05	-67.9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	200	0.645	$129.00	$-1.00	-0.8%