PnL (30d)

−$299

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$9

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

6%

43W / 630L · 176 open

Win Return (30d)

7%

48W / 647L · 154 open

Trades (30d)

849

across 219 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$1.90

avg win $0 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.01

$4 won / $303 lost

Reward / Risk

0.24

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$25

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	3.5% 171W/4,686L	1784	$146,891
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/18L	71	$5,745
💵 Economy	100.0% 2W/0L	41	$2,167
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/14L	28	$2,082
🌤 Weather	8.3% 5W/55L	21	$1,271
🤖 Tech	—	16	$1,470
₿ Crypto	100.0% 2W/0L	14	$482
⚽ Sports	—	9	$668
🔬 Science	—	1	$106

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

6 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 5?	No	67	0.625	$41.78	$-5.01	-10.7%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by August 31?	Yes	43	0.215	$9.33	$-3.69	-28.3%
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	No	43	0.115	$4.98	$-26.22	-84.0%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck stay at Borussia Dortmund?	No	90	0.026	$2.38	$-59.72	-96.2%
Will Emiliano Martinez join Al-Hilal?	Yes	50	0.036	$1.80	$-13.85	-88.5%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	50	0.005	$0.25	$-16.60	-98.5%