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Trader

0x99bce72fb855cc8eebe6c85683ede46da1784f35
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$614
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$82
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-4.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
50%
1,880W / 1,900L · 32 open
Win Return (30d)
50%
1,897W / 1,911L · 4 open
Trades (30d)
3,812
across 519 markets · ~7 per market
EV / position
−$1.21
avg win $18 · loss $15
Profit Factor
0.86
$3,796 won / $4,410 lost
Reward / Risk
1.25
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$231
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $36,406 · all-time $8,255,037

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 51.5% 11,424W/10,738L 4379 $188,065
⚽ Sports 49.7% 509W/515L 343 $5,030
🌤 Weather 57.2% 279W/209L 93 $2,023
₿ Crypto 45.8% 54W/64L 46 $676
🎬 Culture 64.7% 55W/30L 33 $412
💵 Economy 40.6% 26W/38L 31 $530
🏛 Politics 92.6% 25W/2L 13 $150
🤖 Tech 100.0% 11W/0L 6 $244

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

196 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
CF Villarreal C vs. Levante UD: O/U 0.5 Over 62 1.000 $62.21 $17.40 +38.8%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 226 0.205 $46.32 $-39.02 -45.7%
Will Trump praise Mark Rutte in August? Yes 96 0.363 $34.78 $-15.07 -30.2%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes 127 0.240 $30.45 $-8.56 -21.9%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $155 Week of August 3 2026? No 77 0.375 $28.71 $1.53 +5.6%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? Yes 279 0.085 $23.75 $-55.43 -70.0%
Larne FC vs. SK Iberia 1999: Team to Advance SK Iberia 1999 36 0.540 $19.34 $11.82 +157.1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $148 Week of August 3 2026? Yes 26 0.620 $16.41 $-1.59 -8.8%
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Mexico" in August? Yes 20 0.685 $13.70 $5.30 +63.1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes 165 0.080 $13.18 $-9.82 -42.7%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 in August? No 104 0.115 $12.00 $-10.88 -47.6%
Rakuten Monkeys vs. TSG Hawks TSG Hawks 23 0.485 $10.99 $9.63 +708.3%
Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by December 31, 2026? No 20 0.510 $10.20 $7.40 +264.3%
Ben Pasternak jailed? Yes 185 0.046 $8.58 $5.63 +190.6%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by August 31? No 18 0.415 $7.41 $-0.45 -5.7%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of August 3 2026? Yes 27 0.270 $7.40 $2.46 +50.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 6? No 14 0.480 $6.62 $0.69 +11.6%
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? No 87 0.072 $6.24 $-17.47 -73.7%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 65 by August 31? Yes 51 0.120 $6.17 $-1.06 -14.6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 5? No 17 0.340 $5.76 $-0.59 -9.3%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 150 0.035 $5.19 $-6.85 -56.9%
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 4 0.965 $4.29 $1.67 +63.6%
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by August 31? Yes 43 0.100 $4.29 $-4.72 -52.4%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 4 0.935 $4.18 $3.22 +336.4%
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by September 30? No 5 0.815 $4.07 $2.32 +132.8%