| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
252,699 |
0.165 |
$41,695.28 |
$-8,283.97 |
-16.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
15,000 |
0.785 |
$11,775.21 |
$1,846.11 |
+18.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
7,000 |
1.000 |
$6,996.74 |
$717.16 |
+11.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
28,000 |
0.130 |
$3,639.94 |
$-3,199.14 |
-46.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
20,000 |
0.175 |
$3,499.96 |
$-1,537.16 |
-30.5% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
3,218 |
0.940 |
$3,024.58 |
$207.42 |
+7.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
5,405 |
0.487 |
$2,634.96 |
$1,440.22 |
+120.5% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
132,000 |
0.019 |
$2,574.00 |
$-5,462.56 |
-68.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
30,962 |
0.055 |
$1,702.89 |
$-2,881.14 |
-62.9% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
5,200 |
0.276 |
$1,432.73 |
$993.35 |
+226.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
13,359 |
0.105 |
$1,402.67 |
$-722.10 |
-34.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
5,729 |
0.215 |
$1,231.83 |
$-434.81 |
-26.1% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
Yes |
64,000 |
0.017 |
$1,088.01 |
$-702.79 |
-39.2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
Yes |
15,212 |
0.037 |
$570.44 |
$-244.88 |
-30.0% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? |
Yes |
7,000 |
0.075 |
$525.00 |
$-105.00 |
-16.7% |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
8,653 |
0.055 |
$475.94 |
$-231.44 |
-32.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
4,500 |
0.100 |
$450.04 |
$-656.05 |
-59.3% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
3,075 |
0.145 |
$445.92 |
$-367.02 |
-45.1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.145 |
$435.00 |
$-255.00 |
-37.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
12,000 |
0.033 |
$390.00 |
$103.03 |
+35.9% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,994 |
0.125 |
$374.26 |
$-78.29 |
-17.3% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
6,926 |
0.054 |
$373.99 |
$-75.39 |
-16.8% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,600 |
0.225 |
$360.00 |
$-72.00 |
-16.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.160 |
$320.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.070 |
$279.98 |
$-82.69 |
-22.8% |