| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
262,699 |
0.155 |
$40,718.29 |
$-10,760.93 |
-20.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
15,000 |
0.845 |
$12,675.23 |
$2,746.13 |
+27.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
7,000 |
1.000 |
$6,996.74 |
$717.16 |
+11.4% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
3,218 |
0.940 |
$3,024.58 |
$207.42 |
+7.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
28,000 |
0.105 |
$2,939.95 |
$-3,899.13 |
-57.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
20,000 |
0.135 |
$2,699.97 |
$-2,337.15 |
-46.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
132,000 |
0.020 |
$2,640.00 |
$-5,396.56 |
-67.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
5,405 |
0.427 |
$2,310.65 |
$1,115.91 |
+93.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
30,962 |
0.045 |
$1,393.28 |
$-3,190.76 |
-69.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
13,359 |
0.095 |
$1,269.09 |
$-855.69 |
-40.3% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
5,200 |
0.243 |
$1,263.72 |
$824.34 |
+187.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
5,729 |
0.185 |
$1,059.94 |
$-606.69 |
-36.4% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
Yes |
64,000 |
0.016 |
$1,024.00 |
$-766.79 |
-42.8% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
Yes |
15,212 |
0.038 |
$585.65 |
$-229.67 |
-28.2% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? |
Yes |
7,000 |
0.075 |
$525.00 |
$-105.00 |
-16.7% |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
8,653 |
0.055 |
$475.94 |
$-231.44 |
-32.7% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
3,075 |
0.145 |
$445.92 |
$-367.02 |
-45.1% |
| Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3? |
Yes |
434 |
0.994 |
$431.15 |
$431.15 |
+0.0% |
| Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3? |
Yes |
436 |
0.955 |
$416.21 |
$-10.62 |
-2.5% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
6,926 |
0.059 |
$412.08 |
$-37.30 |
-8.3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
4,500 |
0.085 |
$382.54 |
$-723.56 |
-65.4% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,600 |
0.235 |
$376.00 |
$-56.00 |
-13.0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.125 |
$375.00 |
$-315.00 |
-45.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.175 |
$350.00 |
$30.00 |
+9.4% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,994 |
0.115 |
$344.32 |
$-108.23 |
-23.9% |