| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
252,699 |
0.165 |
$41,695.28 |
$-8,283.97 |
-16.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
15,000 |
0.785 |
$11,775.21 |
$1,846.11 |
+18.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
7,000 |
1.000 |
$6,996.74 |
$717.16 |
+11.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
28,000 |
0.145 |
$4,059.93 |
$-2,779.15 |
-40.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
20,000 |
0.175 |
$3,499.96 |
$-1,537.16 |
-30.5% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
3,218 |
0.940 |
$3,024.58 |
$207.42 |
+7.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
5,405 |
0.464 |
$2,507.94 |
$1,313.20 |
+109.9% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
132,000 |
0.018 |
$2,442.00 |
$-5,594.56 |
-69.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
30,962 |
0.055 |
$1,702.89 |
$-2,881.14 |
-62.9% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
5,200 |
0.277 |
$1,440.53 |
$1,001.15 |
+227.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
13,359 |
0.100 |
$1,335.88 |
$-788.89 |
-37.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
5,729 |
0.230 |
$1,317.77 |
$-348.87 |
-20.9% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
Yes |
64,000 |
0.017 |
$1,056.01 |
$-734.79 |
-41.0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
Yes |
15,212 |
0.037 |
$570.44 |
$-244.88 |
-30.0% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? |
Yes |
7,000 |
0.075 |
$525.00 |
$-105.00 |
-16.7% |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
8,653 |
0.055 |
$475.94 |
$-231.44 |
-32.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
4,500 |
0.105 |
$472.54 |
$-633.55 |
-57.3% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
3,075 |
0.145 |
$445.92 |
$-367.02 |
-45.1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.140 |
$420.00 |
$-270.00 |
-39.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
12,000 |
0.032 |
$378.00 |
$91.03 |
+31.7% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
6,926 |
0.054 |
$373.99 |
$-75.39 |
-16.8% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,600 |
0.230 |
$368.00 |
$-64.00 |
-14.8% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,994 |
0.115 |
$344.32 |
$-108.23 |
-23.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.165 |
$330.00 |
$10.00 |
+3.1% |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.075 |
$299.98 |
$-62.69 |
-17.3% |