| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
262,699 |
0.155 |
$40,718.29 |
$-10,760.93 |
-20.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
15,000 |
0.795 |
$11,925.21 |
$1,996.12 |
+20.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
7,000 |
1.000 |
$6,996.74 |
$717.16 |
+11.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
28,000 |
0.135 |
$3,779.93 |
$-3,059.14 |
-44.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
20,000 |
0.160 |
$3,199.96 |
$-1,837.16 |
-36.5% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
3,218 |
0.935 |
$3,008.50 |
$191.33 |
+6.8% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
132,000 |
0.022 |
$2,970.00 |
$-5,066.56 |
-63.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
5,405 |
0.400 |
$2,159.31 |
$964.57 |
+80.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
30,962 |
0.055 |
$1,702.89 |
$-2,881.14 |
-62.9% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
5,200 |
0.278 |
$1,445.73 |
$1,006.36 |
+229.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
13,359 |
0.095 |
$1,269.09 |
$-855.69 |
-40.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
5,729 |
0.195 |
$1,117.24 |
$-549.40 |
-33.0% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
Yes |
64,000 |
0.017 |
$1,088.01 |
$-702.79 |
-39.2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
Yes |
15,212 |
0.038 |
$578.05 |
$-237.27 |
-29.1% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? |
Yes |
7,000 |
0.075 |
$525.00 |
$-105.00 |
-16.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
4,500 |
0.110 |
$495.05 |
$-611.05 |
-55.2% |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
8,653 |
0.055 |
$475.94 |
$-231.44 |
-32.7% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
3,075 |
0.145 |
$445.92 |
$-367.02 |
-45.1% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,600 |
0.235 |
$376.00 |
$-56.00 |
-13.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,994 |
0.125 |
$374.26 |
$-78.29 |
-17.3% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
6,926 |
0.054 |
$373.99 |
$-75.39 |
-16.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.175 |
$350.00 |
$30.00 |
+9.4% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.110 |
$330.00 |
$-360.00 |
-52.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
12,000 |
0.027 |
$324.00 |
$37.03 |
+12.9% |
| Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
522 |
0.600 |
$313.48 |
$124.48 |
+65.9% |