Arman2
0x9453a389c73df7991249d9f2c6e2c854157b1a48
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$2,745
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$1,224
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+7.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
84%
188W / 36L · 41 open
Win Return (30d)
86%
227W / 38L
Trades (30d)
265
across 25 markets · ~11 per market
EV / position
+$144.49
avg win $275 · loss $221
Profit Factor
3.48
$3,850 won / $1,105 lost
Reward / Risk
1.24
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1,011
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $132,903 · all-time $2,566,330
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
19,500 |
0.399 |
$7,780.57 |
$1,233.00 |
+18.8% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
4,363 |
0.996 |
$4,345.56 |
$398.22 |
+10.1% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
Yes |
2,767 |
0.645 |
$1,784.71 |
$613.45 |
+52.4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
1,590 |
0.255 |
$405.53 |
$-32.86 |
-7.5% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
362 |
1.000 |
$361.34 |
$11.34 |
+3.2% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? |
No |
342 |
0.920 |
$314.81 |
$83.81 |
+36.3% |
| Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? |
No |
39 |
0.974 |
$38.26 |
$27.26 |
+247.9% |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? |
No |
227 |
0.100 |
$22.67 |
$-77.33 |
-77.3% |