PnL (30d)

+$325

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$92

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+2.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

23%

422W / 1,388L · 164 open

Win Return (30d)

26%

505W / 1,469L

Trades (30d)

1,974

across 166 markets · ~12 per market

EV / position

+$2.14

avg win $182 · loss $42

Profit Factor

1.06

$5,455 won / $5,130 lost

Reward / Risk

4.32

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$446

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	23.3% 422W/1,388L	166	$21,750
🏛 Politics	33.9% 86W/168L	20	$3,118
🎬 Culture	34.8% 85W/159L	11	$2,876
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/4L	2	$117

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

14 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	Yes	312	0.365	$113.88	$33.86	+42.3%
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	178	0.390	$69.25	$7.11	+11.4%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	257	0.250	$64.25	$-47.77	-42.6%
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	224	0.260	$58.14	$14.98	+34.7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	394	0.115	$45.36	$-12.35	-21.4%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	Yes	136	0.245	$33.42	$15.08	+82.3%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Yes	245	0.095	$23.31	$-19.20	-45.2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	468	0.025	$11.89	$-26.99	-69.4%
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	Yes	160	0.065	$10.38	$3.11	+42.8%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	233	0.041	$9.55	$-18.41	-65.8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	446	0.019	$8.70	$-20.07	-69.8%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Yes	332	0.015	$5.15	$-40.02	-88.6%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	374	0.006	$2.24	$-40.32	-94.7%
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	401	0.003	$1.20	$-46.09	-97.5%