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Trader leaderboard/Seldon26

Seldon26

0x80302a5a0f7806838ea65b39d91071e63cb67b74
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$405
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$165
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-67.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
40%
4W / 6L · 9 open
Win Return (30d)
63%
12W / 7L
Trades (30d)
19
across 12 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$57.85
avg win $8 · loss $84
Profit Factor
0.04
$16 won / $420 lost
Reward / Risk
0.09
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$10
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,684 · all-time $872,533

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 50.0% 101W/101L 166 $17,013
🏛 Politics 100.0% 4W/0L 21 $300
💵 Economy 4 $47
🎬 Culture 0.0% 0W/1L 2 $19
₿ Crypto 1 $10

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

57 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1,858 0.138 $256.34 $-154.65 -37.6%
Will Nous Research launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 237 0.840 $198.79 $99.40 +100.0%
Will Twice release a song in 2026? Yes 301 0.583 $175.57 $74.06 +73.0%
Will Matt Schultz advance from the AK-AL primary election? Yes 177 0.627 $110.90 $35.91 +47.9%
Will Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2027? No 111 0.760 $84.25 $49.88 +145.2%
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026? No 79 0.822 $64.94 $33.65 +107.6%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? No 82 0.780 $63.93 $38.81 +154.5%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? No 179 0.280 $49.91 $-4.20 -7.8%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? Yes 117 0.386 $44.93 $-1.69 -3.6%
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? No 59 0.745 $44.07 $21.00 +91.0%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by December 31? No 38 0.761 $29.01 $16.05 +123.8%
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 37 0.755 $28.29 $9.93 +54.1%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No 67 0.375 $25.00 $15.67 +167.9%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 86 0.285 $24.40 $-6.43 -20.9%
Will Steven Snell win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election? Yes 43 0.565 $24.13 $7.47 +44.8%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? No 38 0.635 $24.05 $13.06 +119.0%
Will Bitcoin kimchi premium hit 8% in 2026? Yes 64 0.375 $23.89 $6.49 +37.3%
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat? No 255 0.065 $16.61 $-44.71 -72.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes 53 0.305 $16.05 $6.58 +69.4%
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? No 31 0.475 $14.83 $4.84 +48.4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes 24 0.565 $13.78 $4.02 +41.2%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No 15 0.890 $13.48 $3.64 +36.9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? Yes 45 0.290 $13.18 $3.64 +38.1%
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027? Yes 71 0.185 $13.08 $-9.55 -42.2%
Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series? Yes 23 0.535 $12.44 $2.67 +27.4%