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tradingdecs

0x7fc6e183e48e2f7658cd825ff4f40e44e9327306
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$902
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$34
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-66.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
17%
4W / 19L · 26 open
Win Return (30d)
35%
17W / 32L
Trades (30d)
49
across 12 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$150.26
avg win $25 · loss $185
Profit Factor
0.03
$25 won / $926 lost
Reward / Risk
0.13
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · all-time $1,988,124

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 31.6% 37W/80L 48 $8,733
💵 Economy 100.0% 4W/0L 5 $496
₿ Crypto 3 $358
🏛 Politics 100.0% 4W/0L 3 $141
🎬 Culture 100.0% 4W/0L 1 $54

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

46 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 70,252 0.039 $2,739.82 $-2,205.83 -44.6%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Yes 13,331 0.033 $439.92 $-669.90 -60.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? Yes 426 0.830 $353.59 $282.59 +398.0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 1,100 0.225 $247.50 $-55.50 -18.3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 520 0.465 $241.85 $-23.40 -8.8%
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 1,028 0.220 $226.07 $-144.38 -39.0%
Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 640 0.230 $147.18 $-35.59 -19.5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 1,430 0.095 $135.85 $-359.04 -72.5%
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 459 0.165 $75.73 $-67.04 -47.0%
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 342 0.205 $70.11 $-46.49 -39.9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 4,436 0.013 $59.89 $-23.17 -27.9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 600 0.095 $57.00 $-63.00 -52.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 4,505 0.013 $56.31 $20.27 +56.2%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 100 0.539 $53.95 $13.75 +34.2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 250 0.209 $52.38 $4.38 +9.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 2,000 0.025 $50.00 $25.00 +100.0%
Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 100 0.500 $50.00 $0.00 +0.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? Yes 400 0.125 $50.00 $-178.00 -78.1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? Yes 400 0.125 $50.00 $10.00 +25.0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Yes 4,546 0.011 $47.73 $-275.41 -85.2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 500 0.095 $47.50 $-72.50 -60.4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? Yes 200 0.200 $40.00 $-86.00 -68.3%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 75 0.512 $38.40 $30.00 +357.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 50 0.645 $32.25 $12.25 +61.2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 100 0.270 $27.00 $0.80 +3.1%