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Trader leaderboard/lightsout912

lightsout912

0x7e1d3cb44c3f2a6ec9abc667820ee2645bd44d41
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$21
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
+2.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
56%
5W / 4L · 2 open
Win Return (30d)
56%
5W / 4L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
11
across 6 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$4.12
avg win $11 · loss $6
Profit Factor
2.65
$33 won / $12 lost
Reward / Risk
1.77
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,871 · all-time $171,030

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 54.1% 185W/157L 109 $20,040
🤖 Tech 86.4% 19W/3L 3 $2,277
🎬 Culture 66.7% 2W/1L 2 $147
🏛 Politics 100.0% 2W/0L 1 $126

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 200 0.675 $135.00 $-15.00 -10.0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? No 216 0.268 $57.95 $18.81 +48.1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes 1,330 0.043 $57.72 $22.35 +63.2%
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? No 80 0.358 $28.64 $-7.93 -21.7%
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by August 31, 2026? No 55 0.475 $26.12 $-11.28 -30.1%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? Yes 100 0.245 $24.50 $-13.50 -35.5%
Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 3, 2026? No 42 0.500 $21.25 $-16.05 -43.0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by August 31, 2026? Yes 62 0.325 $20.01 $-4.92 -19.7%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 20 0.750 $15.00 $5.80 +63.0%
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 15 0.915 $14.05 $1.77 +14.4%
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes 50 0.275 $13.75 $7.75 +129.2%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? No 50 0.260 $13.00 $5.00 +62.5%
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 193 0.060 $11.59 $8.69 +300.0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 12, 2026? Yes 100 0.060 $6.00 $4.00 +200.0%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? Yes 200 0.028 $5.60 $-5.40 -49.1%
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 133 0.032 $4.26 $2.66 +166.7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? No 4 0.982 $3.73 $2.93 +367.6%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? No 20 0.094 $1.88 $-0.82 -30.4%
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes 5 0.330 $1.65 $0.65 +65.0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 13, 2026? Yes 100 0.016 $1.60 $-0.40 -20.0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026? Yes 100 0.013 $1.35 $-1.15 -46.0%
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 11 0.075 $0.82 $-1.49 -64.3%
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 24 0.005 $0.13 $0.01 +9.9%