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Trader leaderboard/lightsout912

lightsout912

0x7e1d3cb44c3f2a6ec9abc667820ee2645bd44d41
PnL (30d)
+$42
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$34
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
54%
185W / 157L · 87 open
Win Return (30d)
51%
215W / 210L · 4 open
Trades (30d)
429
across 109 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
+$0.50
avg win $36 · loss $47
Profit Factor
1.02
$1,749 won / $1,707 lost
Reward / Risk
0.77
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$49
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,835 · all-time $170,993

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 54.1% 185W/157L 109 $20,040
🤖 Tech 87.0% 20W/3L 3 $2,319
🎬 Culture 66.7% 2W/1L 2 $147
🏛 Politics 100.0% 2W/0L 1 $126

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 200 0.680 $136.00 $-14.00 -9.3%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? No 216 0.337 $72.76 $33.62 +85.9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes 1,330 0.038 $51.20 $15.84 +44.8%
Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 3, 2026? No 42 0.945 $40.16 $2.86 +7.7%
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? No 80 0.371 $29.68 $-6.89 -18.8%
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by August 31, 2026? No 55 0.475 $26.12 $-11.28 -30.1%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? Yes 100 0.240 $24.00 $-14.00 -36.8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by August 31, 2026? Yes 62 0.330 $20.32 $-4.61 -18.5%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 20 0.750 $15.00 $5.80 +63.0%
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 15 0.915 $14.05 $1.77 +14.4%
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? Yes 50 0.280 $14.00 $8.00 +133.3%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? No 50 0.255 $12.75 $4.75 +59.4%
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 193 0.065 $12.46 $9.56 +330.0%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? Yes 200 0.034 $6.70 $-4.30 -39.1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 12, 2026? Yes 100 0.064 $6.35 $4.35 +217.5%
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 133 0.033 $4.33 $2.73 +170.8%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? No 4 0.982 $3.73 $2.93 +367.4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? No 20 0.098 $1.95 $-0.75 -27.8%
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? Yes 5 0.370 $1.85 $0.85 +85.0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 13, 2026? Yes 100 0.017 $1.65 $-0.35 -17.5%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026? Yes 100 0.010 $1.00 $-1.50 -60.0%
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 11 0.075 $0.82 $-1.49 -64.3%
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 24 0.005 $0.13 $0.01 +9.9%