PnL (30d)

+$6

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

$0

no open positions

ROI (30d)

+1.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

45%

9W / 11L

Win Return (30d)

45%

9W / 11L

Trades (30d)

20

across 9 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

+$0.70

avg win $10 · loss $7

Profit Factor

1.18

$42 won / $35 lost

Reward / Risk

1.47

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$21

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	54.1% 185W/157L	109	$20,040
🤖 Tech	87.0% 20W/3L	3	$2,319
🎬 Culture	66.7% 2W/1L	2	$147
🏛 Politics	100.0% 2W/0L	1	$126

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	200	0.685	$137.00	$-13.00	-8.7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	216	0.331	$71.57	$32.43	+82.9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,330	0.038	$51.20	$15.84	+44.8%
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	80	0.358	$28.68	$-7.89	-21.6%
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	55	0.475	$26.12	$-11.28	-30.1%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.240	$24.00	$-14.00	-36.8%
Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 3, 2026?	No	42	0.500	$21.25	$-16.05	-43.0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by August 31, 2026?	Yes	62	0.345	$21.23	$-3.69	-14.8%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	20	0.750	$15.00	$5.80	+63.0%
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	15	0.915	$14.05	$1.77	+14.4%
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	50	0.280	$14.00	$8.00	+133.3%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	50	0.255	$12.75	$4.75	+59.4%
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	193	0.048	$9.27	$6.37	+220.0%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?	Yes	200	0.032	$6.40	$-4.60	-41.8%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 12, 2026?	Yes	100	0.058	$5.80	$3.80	+190.0%
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	133	0.032	$4.26	$2.66	+166.7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?	No	4	0.982	$3.73	$2.93	+367.6%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	20	0.098	$1.95	$-0.75	-27.8%
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	5	0.370	$1.85	$0.85	+85.0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 13, 2026?	Yes	100	0.017	$1.65	$-0.35	-17.5%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026?	Yes	100	0.015	$1.50	$-1.00	-40.0%
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	11	0.075	$0.82	$-1.49	-64.3%
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	24	0.005	$0.13	$0.01	+9.9%