PnL (30d)

−$34

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$2

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-11.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

42%

32W / 45L · 188 open

Win Return (30d)

34%

89W / 170L · 6 open

Trades (30d)

265

across 49 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$1.89

avg win $2 · loss $4

Profit Factor

0.30

$15 won / $49 lost

Reward / Risk

0.61

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$6

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	8.5% 147W/1,578L	729	$17,553
🏛 Politics	1.6% 3W/186L	155	$1,833
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/14L	70	$860
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/4L	57	$763
🎬 Culture	51.1% 23W/22L	30	$234
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/1L	28	$269
⚽ Sports	0.0% 0W/2L	10	$56
🌤 Weather	0.0% 0W/9L	2	$4
🔬 Science	—	2	$17

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	1,819	0.042	$75.50	$1.28	+1.7%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	1,432	0.044	$63.71	$-16.43	-20.5%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	2,230	0.025	$55.76	$-30.94	-35.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	800	0.065	$52.00	$-12.00	-18.7%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?	Yes	689	0.075	$51.66	$-27.30	-34.6%
Will Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat?	No	990	0.051	$49.99	$-21.53	-30.1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	620	0.075	$46.50	$-17.64	-27.5%
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Yes	486	0.095	$46.15	$2.77	+6.4%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?	Yes	555	0.080	$44.38	$-23.08	-34.2%
Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	1,474	0.030	$44.22	$-19.57	-30.7%
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?	Yes	957	0.043	$40.67	$-2.11	-4.9%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	800	0.050	$40.00	$-4.00	-9.1%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?	Yes	719	0.056	$39.90	$-2.60	-6.1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	840	0.048	$39.88	$-0.15	-0.4%
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	Yes	718	0.055	$39.47	$-7.30	-15.6%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Yes	1,364	0.029	$38.86	$-0.38	-1.0%
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	360	0.105	$37.80	$-14.90	-28.3%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?	No	951	0.037	$35.67	$-7.54	-17.4%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat?	No	850	0.042	$35.27	$-8.92	-20.2%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	583	0.059	$34.40	$-0.39	-1.1%
Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat?	Yes	600	0.055	$33.00	$-1.00	-2.9%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?	Yes	499	0.065	$32.43	$-5.81	-15.2%
Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat?	No	550	0.059	$32.17	$-0.84	-2.6%
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?	No	500	0.064	$32.00	$0.36	+1.2%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	164	0.195	$31.99	$-0.58	-1.8%