PnL (30d)

−$799

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$389

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-7.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

9%

147W / 1,578L · 2,810 open

Win Return (30d)

34%

1,475W / 2,927L · 133 open

Trades (30d)

4,535

across 729 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$5.71

avg win $16 · loss $11

Profit Factor

0.35

$421 won / $1,220 lost

Reward / Risk

1.51

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$61

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	8.5% 147W/1,578L	729	$17,553
🏛 Politics	1.6% 3W/186L	155	$1,833
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/14L	70	$860
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/4L	57	$763
🎬 Culture	51.1% 23W/22L	30	$234
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/1L	28	$269
⚽ Sports	0.0% 0W/2L	10	$56
🌤 Weather	0.0% 0W/9L	2	$4
🔬 Science	—	2	$17

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	1,819	0.037	$68.22	$-6.00	-8.1%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	1,432	0.044	$63.71	$-16.43	-20.5%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	2,230	0.025	$54.65	$-32.06	-37.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	800	0.065	$52.00	$-12.00	-18.7%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?	Yes	689	0.075	$51.66	$-27.30	-34.6%
Will Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat?	No	990	0.051	$49.99	$-21.53	-30.1%
Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	1,474	0.029	$43.48	$-20.30	-31.8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	620	0.070	$43.40	$-20.74	-32.3%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?	Yes	555	0.076	$42.16	$-25.30	-37.5%
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?	Yes	957	0.043	$40.67	$-2.11	-4.9%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	840	0.048	$39.88	$-0.15	-0.4%
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	Yes	718	0.055	$39.47	$-7.30	-15.6%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Yes	1,364	0.028	$38.18	$-1.06	-2.7%
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	360	0.105	$37.80	$-14.90	-28.3%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?	Yes	669	0.057	$37.80	$-2.11	-5.3%
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Yes	390	0.095	$37.06	$2.29	+6.6%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	800	0.045	$36.00	$-8.00	-18.2%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat?	No	850	0.042	$35.70	$-8.50	-19.2%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?	No	951	0.037	$35.67	$-7.54	-17.4%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	583	0.059	$34.40	$-0.39	-1.1%
Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat?	Yes	600	0.055	$33.00	$-1.00	-2.9%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?	Yes	499	0.065	$32.43	$-5.81	-15.2%
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?	No	500	0.065	$32.25	$0.61	+1.9%
Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat?	No	550	0.059	$32.17	$-0.84	-2.6%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	164	0.195	$31.99	$-0.58	-1.8%