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thecaricature

0x66a1db98713015330a82f08273b682bee77e80d9
Scoped to Crypto — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$2
Crypto · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$90
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
84%
21W / 4L · 260 open
Win Return (30d)
39%
112W / 173L
Trades (30d)
285
across 63 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
+$0.42
avg win $14 · loss $20
Profit Factor
1.05
$42 won / $40 lost
Reward / Risk
0.70
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$2
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $78,675 · all-time $10,321,203

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 9.2% 160W/1,578L 738 $17,940
🏛 Politics 1.6% 3W/186L 159 $1,968
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/17L 77 $896
🤖 Tech 0.0% 0W/4L 61 $809
🎬 Culture 51.1% 23W/22L 32 $250
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/1L 32 $278
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/2L 11 $58
🌤 Weather 0.0% 0W/9L 2 $4
🔬 Science 2 $35

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? Yes 1,819 0.042 $75.50 $1.28 +1.7%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 1,432 0.044 $63.71 $-16.43 -20.5%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 2,230 0.025 $55.76 $-30.94 -35.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 800 0.065 $52.00 $-12.00 -18.7%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31? Yes 689 0.075 $51.66 $-27.30 -34.6%
Will Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat? No 990 0.051 $49.99 $-21.53 -30.1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 620 0.080 $49.60 $-14.54 -22.7%
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes 486 0.095 $46.15 $2.77 +6.4%
Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? Yes 1,474 0.030 $44.22 $-19.57 -30.7%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 800 0.055 $44.00 $0.00 +0.0%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31? Yes 555 0.076 $42.43 $-25.02 -37.1%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 848 0.050 $41.97 $-1.47 -3.4%
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Yes 957 0.043 $40.67 $-2.11 -4.9%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? Yes 719 0.056 $39.90 $-2.60 -6.1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 840 0.048 $39.88 $-0.15 -0.4%
Tim Walz in jail by December 31? Yes 718 0.055 $39.47 $-7.30 -15.6%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes 1,364 0.029 $38.86 $-0.38 -1.0%
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 360 0.105 $37.80 $-14.90 -28.3%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat? No 850 0.043 $36.12 $-8.07 -18.3%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat? No 951 0.037 $35.67 $-7.54 -17.4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? Yes 1,217 0.028 $33.47 $-23.30 -41.0%
Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat? Yes 600 0.055 $33.00 $-1.00 -2.9%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? Yes 499 0.065 $32.43 $-5.81 -15.2%
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-07 House seat? No 800 0.041 $32.40 $-9.20 -22.1%
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat? No 500 0.065 $32.25 $0.61 +1.9%