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Trader leaderboard/e46m3

e46m3

0x4f1d5ae26fc31472966e951af3183308736d8de2
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$387
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$42
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+2.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
86%
1,481W / 234L · 202 open
Win Return (30d)
85%
1,575W / 270L · 72 open
Trades (30d)
1,917
across 620 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$0.79
avg win $3 · loss $19
Profit Factor
1.35
$1,480 won / $1,094 lost
Reward / Risk
0.19
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$41
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $31,806 · all-time $15,327,428

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 74.7% 13,872W/4,686L 6776 $654,869
⚽ Sports 65.6% 40W/21L 147 $11,038
🌤 Weather 85.5% 71W/12L 143 $1,985
🏛 Politics 32.4% 23W/48L 126 $22,788
💵 Economy 33.9% 20W/39L 45 $20,211
🎬 Culture 50.0% 1W/1L 25 $4,105
🤖 Tech 19 $299
₿ Crypto 9 $31

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Neither team to score first? No 160 0.855 $136.80 $-15.20 -10.0%
Exact Score: CF Villarreal C 1 - 0 Levante UD? Yes 112 0.900 $100.96 $94.36 +1430.0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 115 0.661 $76.09 $31.74 +71.6%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Over 120 0.615 $73.91 $33.65 +83.6%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by December 31? No 77 0.685 $52.66 $-21.14 -28.6%
CF Villarreal C vs. Levante UD: O/U 0.5 Over 50 1.000 $49.96 $3.47 +7.5%
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? No 61 0.550 $33.43 $3.04 +10.0%
Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? Yes 30 0.959 $29.08 $27.56 +1817.0%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31? No 39 0.745 $29.05 $9.71 +50.2%
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 44 0.625 $27.77 $-1.64 -5.6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 5? No 25 1.000 $24.95 $0.24 +1.0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 25 0.996 $24.90 $23.43 +1593.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No 25 0.908 $22.71 $22.71 +0.0%
Will Rodri join Barcelona? Yes 613 0.036 $22.09 $-16.26 -42.4%
Will Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series? No 25 0.876 $21.90 $0.09 +0.4%
FC Tulsa vs. Sacramento Republic FC: O/U 0.5 Over 25 0.870 $21.75 $21.75 +0.0%
Will Kawhi play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? Yes 611 0.035 $21.64 $3.12 +16.8%
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee? No 25 0.815 $20.27 $20.27 +0.0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 5? No 21 0.955 $20.19 $20.19 +0.0%
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026? No 25 0.820 $20.17 $0.74 +3.8%
Will Amanda Bell be the WI-06 Democratic nominee? No 25 0.820 $20.16 $-0.49 -2.4%
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat? No 23 0.820 $18.86 $2.30 +13.9%
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No 25 0.710 $17.64 $17.64 +0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 5? No 25 0.705 $17.62 $17.62 +0.0%
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? No 25 0.700 $17.50 $-0.25 -1.4%