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Trader leaderboard/jam516

jam516

0x4e8deac8c35ff5321fe8a0a9fb6dfc4b0bbf3b13
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$426
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$10
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-9.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
42%
166W / 229L · 11 open
Win Return (30d)
41%
168W / 238L
Trades (30d)
406
across 170 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$2.62
avg win $11 · loss $9
Profit Factor
0.57
$561 won / $988 lost
Reward / Risk
1.18
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$56
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $7,816 · all-time $233,225

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 54.2% 933W/788L 621 $37,620
🌤 Weather 41.0% 77W/111L 87 $1,869
🤖 Tech 50.0% 1W/1L 3 $11
🏛 Politics 75.0% 12W/4L 3 $194
🎬 Culture 75.0% 12W/4L 2 $194
💵 Economy 1 $1

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

43 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 865 0.625 $540.77 $-175.96 -24.6%
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? Yes 40 0.665 $26.60 $1.80 +7.3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 5? Yes 20 1.000 $19.99 $9.79 +96.0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5? Yes 20 1.000 $19.99 $7.79 +63.9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 5? Yes 20 1.000 $19.99 $12.99 +185.6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5? Yes 20 1.000 $19.98 $11.38 +132.4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 5? Yes 13 1.000 $12.50 $7.62 +156.3%
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? Yes 40 0.308 $12.32 $3.70 +42.9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on August 5? Yes 10 1.000 $9.99 $6.39 +177.6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 20 0.480 $9.60 $3.60 +60.0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 20 0.445 $8.90 $-3.30 -27.0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 20 0.435 $8.70 $5.10 +141.7%
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 20 0.425 $8.50 $2.90 +51.8%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 20 0.325 $6.50 $-0.90 -12.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 150 0.037 $5.55 $-37.95 -87.2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 5? Yes 10 0.330 $3.30 $-0.60 -15.4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 5? Yes 8 0.400 $3.20 $0.56 +21.2%
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? Yes 10 0.280 $2.80 $1.50 +115.4%
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 20 0.085 $1.70 $-0.90 -34.6%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 10 0.129 $1.29 $1.10 +578.9%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 20 0.055 $1.10 $-5.10 -82.3%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 20 0.046 $0.93 $-0.45 -32.6%
Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? Yes 10 0.072 $0.72 $0.12 +20.8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 6? Yes 11 0.065 $0.71 $-0.06 -7.1%
Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? Yes 10 0.035 $0.35 $0.17 +96.6%