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Trader leaderboard/jam516

jam516

0x4e8deac8c35ff5321fe8a0a9fb6dfc4b0bbf3b13
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$3
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$0
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+3.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
75%
12W / 4L · 1 open
Win Return (30d)
76%
13W / 4L
Trades (30d)
17
across 3 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
+$1.70
avg win $56 · loss $52
Profit Factor
1.07
$56 won / $52 lost
Reward / Risk
1.07
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$52
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $7,816 · all-time $233,225

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 54.2% 933W/789L 624 $37,957
🌤 Weather 41.0% 77W/111L 88 $1,881
🤖 Tech 50.0% 1W/1L 3 $11
🏛 Politics 75.0% 12W/4L 3 $194
🎬 Culture 75.0% 12W/4L 2 $194
💵 Economy 1 $1

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

43 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 865 0.615 $532.12 $-184.62 -25.8%
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? Yes 40 0.665 $26.60 $1.80 +7.3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 5? Yes 20 1.000 $19.99 $9.79 +96.0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5? Yes 20 1.000 $19.99 $7.79 +63.9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 5? Yes 20 1.000 $19.99 $12.99 +185.6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5? Yes 20 1.000 $19.98 $11.38 +132.4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 5? Yes 13 1.000 $12.50 $7.62 +156.3%
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? Yes 40 0.306 $12.26 $3.64 +42.2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on August 5? Yes 10 1.000 $9.99 $6.39 +177.6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 20 0.495 $9.90 $3.90 +65.0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 20 0.455 $9.10 $-3.10 -25.4%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 20 0.415 $8.30 $4.70 +130.6%
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 20 0.410 $8.20 $2.60 +46.4%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 20 0.355 $7.10 $-0.30 -4.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 150 0.038 $5.78 $-37.73 -86.7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 5? Yes 8 0.395 $3.16 $0.52 +19.7%
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? Yes 10 0.290 $2.90 $1.60 +123.1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 5? Yes 10 0.290 $2.90 $-1.00 -25.6%
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 20 0.090 $1.80 $-0.80 -30.8%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 10 0.132 $1.32 $1.13 +594.7%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 20 0.065 $1.30 $-4.90 -79.0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 6? Yes 11 0.085 $0.94 $0.17 +21.4%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 20 0.042 $0.83 $-0.55 -39.9%
Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? Yes 10 0.072 $0.72 $0.12 +20.8%
Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 10 0.028 $0.28 $0.03 +12.0%