| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
8,571 |
0.981 |
$8,403.59 |
$113.96 |
+1.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
7,178 |
0.945 |
$6,782.97 |
$406.90 |
+6.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
5,559 |
1.000 |
$5,556.31 |
$75.89 |
+1.4% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
5,256 |
0.993 |
$5,216.66 |
$365.47 |
+7.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
3,317 |
0.999 |
$3,312.26 |
$48.22 |
+1.5% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
3,241 |
0.992 |
$3,213.10 |
$246.57 |
+8.3% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
3,277 |
0.966 |
$3,163.67 |
$136.53 |
+4.5% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
3,008 |
0.965 |
$2,900.86 |
$259.78 |
+9.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
2,219 |
0.999 |
$2,217.07 |
$5.87 |
+0.3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 5? |
No |
2,114 |
1.000 |
$2,113.25 |
$2.83 |
+0.1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 5? |
No |
2,041 |
1.000 |
$2,039.64 |
$2.04 |
+0.1% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
1,954 |
0.987 |
$1,927.36 |
$-1.69 |
-0.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
1,733 |
0.968 |
$1,676.76 |
$-5.09 |
-0.3% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
1,237 |
0.994 |
$1,229.80 |
$49.35 |
+4.2% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
901 |
0.987 |
$888.78 |
$-1.18 |
-0.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
876 |
0.986 |
$863.48 |
$-4.04 |
-0.5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5? |
No |
762 |
0.981 |
$747.48 |
$3.32 |
+0.4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 5? |
Yes |
711 |
1.000 |
$710.17 |
$1.24 |
+0.2% |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
No |
700 |
0.985 |
$688.84 |
$18.08 |
+2.7% |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? |
No |
732 |
0.885 |
$648.18 |
$54.45 |
+9.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
757 |
0.835 |
$632.22 |
$21.75 |
+3.6% |
| Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
No |
493 |
0.962 |
$474.61 |
$3.78 |
+0.8% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
No |
445 |
1.000 |
$444.35 |
$2.45 |
+0.6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
413 |
0.988 |
$407.71 |
$13.24 |
+3.4% |
| Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? |
No |
411 |
0.740 |
$303.95 |
$-34.03 |
-10.1% |