| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
8,546 |
0.981 |
$8,379.08 |
$113.97 |
+1.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
7,178 |
0.955 |
$6,854.75 |
$478.68 |
+7.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
5,559 |
0.999 |
$5,553.53 |
$73.11 |
+1.3% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
5,225 |
0.997 |
$5,209.13 |
$389.04 |
+8.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
3,312 |
0.999 |
$3,307.27 |
$48.21 |
+1.5% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
3,241 |
0.998 |
$3,232.54 |
$266.01 |
+9.0% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
3,243 |
0.946 |
$3,066.73 |
$70.95 |
+2.4% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
3,008 |
0.955 |
$2,870.79 |
$229.70 |
+8.7% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 5? |
No |
1,807 |
1.000 |
$1,805.85 |
$2.68 |
+0.1% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
1,812 |
0.987 |
$1,787.59 |
$-1.76 |
-0.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
1,672 |
0.999 |
$1,669.97 |
$4.48 |
+0.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
1,440 |
0.965 |
$1,388.79 |
$-9.12 |
-0.7% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
1,237 |
0.994 |
$1,229.80 |
$49.35 |
+4.2% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
901 |
0.987 |
$888.78 |
$-1.18 |
-0.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
871 |
0.985 |
$857.68 |
$-4.92 |
-0.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
1,832 |
0.461 |
$843.44 |
$-678.61 |
-44.6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 5? |
Yes |
711 |
1.000 |
$710.17 |
$1.24 |
+0.2% |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
No |
695 |
0.985 |
$684.26 |
$18.42 |
+2.8% |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? |
No |
732 |
0.885 |
$648.18 |
$54.45 |
+9.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
727 |
0.835 |
$607.22 |
$21.55 |
+3.7% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5? |
No |
498 |
0.984 |
$489.30 |
$6.77 |
+1.4% |
| Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
No |
493 |
0.962 |
$474.61 |
$3.78 |
+0.8% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
No |
445 |
0.999 |
$443.90 |
$2.01 |
+0.5% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
380 |
0.986 |
$374.15 |
$12.47 |
+3.4% |
| Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? |
No |
411 |
0.740 |
$303.95 |
$-34.03 |
-10.1% |