| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
428 |
1.000 |
$427.65 |
$72.87 |
+20.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
480 |
0.845 |
$405.60 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
359 |
0.905 |
$325.06 |
$17.96 |
+5.8% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
200 |
1.000 |
$199.48 |
$19.46 |
+10.8% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
552 |
0.353 |
$195.31 |
$28.46 |
+17.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
282 |
0.690 |
$194.21 |
$-15.40 |
-7.3% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
244 |
0.715 |
$174.16 |
$50.62 |
+41.0% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Yes |
223 |
0.645 |
$143.74 |
$-8.91 |
-5.8% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
118 |
0.991 |
$117.33 |
$80.11 |
+215.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
209 |
0.445 |
$92.80 |
$-18.89 |
-16.9% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
73 |
0.982 |
$71.81 |
$4.31 |
+6.4% |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.957 |
$48.07 |
$3.32 |
+7.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
49 |
0.980 |
$47.75 |
$3.75 |
+8.5% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
364 |
0.115 |
$41.91 |
$-163.95 |
-79.6% |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? |
Yes |
49 |
0.370 |
$18.13 |
$-4.65 |
-20.4% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
Yes |
16 |
0.798 |
$12.42 |
$4.14 |
+49.9% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
12 |
0.805 |
$9.64 |
$0.36 |
+3.9% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? |
No |
5 |
1.000 |
$5.00 |
$0.35 |
+7.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? |
Yes |
5 |
0.920 |
$4.60 |
$0.30 |
+7.0% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.855 |
$4.28 |
$0.07 |
+1.8% |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.718 |
$3.59 |
$0.21 |
+6.1% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
5 |
0.525 |
$2.62 |
$0.07 |
+2.9% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
226 |
0.004 |
$0.90 |
$-36.29 |
-97.6% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
27 |
0.019 |
$0.52 |
$-23.99 |
-97.9% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
230 |
0.001 |
$0.11 |
$-29.22 |
-99.6% |