| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
480 |
0.855 |
$410.40 |
$4.80 |
+1.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
359 |
0.890 |
$319.67 |
$12.57 |
+4.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
282 |
0.710 |
$199.86 |
$-9.74 |
-4.6% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
552 |
0.349 |
$193.10 |
$26.25 |
+15.7% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
244 |
0.715 |
$174.16 |
$50.62 |
+41.0% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Yes |
223 |
0.655 |
$145.97 |
$-6.69 |
-4.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
143 |
0.902 |
$129.03 |
$3.11 |
+2.5% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
118 |
0.996 |
$117.93 |
$80.70 |
+216.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
209 |
0.442 |
$92.28 |
$-19.42 |
-17.4% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
73 |
0.985 |
$72.03 |
$4.53 |
+6.7% |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.957 |
$48.07 |
$3.32 |
+7.4% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
364 |
0.115 |
$41.91 |
$-163.95 |
-79.6% |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? |
Yes |
49 |
0.370 |
$18.13 |
$-4.65 |
-20.4% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
Yes |
16 |
0.797 |
$12.40 |
$4.12 |
+49.7% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
12 |
0.805 |
$9.64 |
$0.36 |
+3.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? |
Yes |
14 |
0.580 |
$7.98 |
$-3.10 |
-28.0% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? |
No |
5 |
1.000 |
$5.00 |
$0.35 |
+7.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? |
Yes |
5 |
0.920 |
$4.60 |
$0.30 |
+7.0% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.865 |
$4.33 |
$0.12 |
+3.0% |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.749 |
$3.75 |
$0.36 |
+10.8% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
5 |
0.525 |
$2.62 |
$0.07 |
+2.9% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
27 |
0.018 |
$0.47 |
$-24.04 |
-98.1% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
226 |
0.001 |
$0.11 |
$-37.08 |
-99.7% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? |
Yes |
7 |
0.003 |
$0.02 |
$-3.96 |
-99.5% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? |
Yes |
4 |
0.001 |
$0.00 |
$-1.27 |
-99.8% |