| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
428 |
0.996 |
$426.15 |
$71.38 |
+20.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
359 |
0.925 |
$332.24 |
$25.14 |
+8.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
282 |
0.725 |
$204.09 |
$-5.52 |
-2.6% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
552 |
0.357 |
$197.24 |
$30.39 |
+18.2% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
200 |
0.954 |
$190.30 |
$10.28 |
+5.7% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
244 |
0.715 |
$174.16 |
$50.62 |
+41.0% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Yes |
223 |
0.625 |
$139.29 |
$-13.37 |
-8.8% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
118 |
0.991 |
$117.33 |
$80.11 |
+215.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
209 |
0.507 |
$105.93 |
$-5.76 |
-5.2% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
73 |
0.984 |
$71.92 |
$4.42 |
+6.6% |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.957 |
$48.07 |
$3.32 |
+7.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
49 |
0.982 |
$47.84 |
$3.85 |
+8.7% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
364 |
0.115 |
$41.91 |
$-163.95 |
-79.6% |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? |
Yes |
49 |
0.385 |
$18.86 |
$-3.92 |
-17.2% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
Yes |
16 |
0.805 |
$12.53 |
$4.25 |
+51.3% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
12 |
0.805 |
$9.64 |
$0.36 |
+3.9% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? |
No |
5 |
0.998 |
$4.99 |
$0.34 |
+7.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? |
Yes |
5 |
0.920 |
$4.60 |
$0.30 |
+7.0% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.845 |
$4.22 |
$0.02 |
+0.6% |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.697 |
$3.48 |
$0.10 |
+3.0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
5 |
0.515 |
$2.58 |
$0.03 |
+1.0% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
226 |
0.005 |
$1.13 |
$-36.06 |
-97.0% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
230 |
0.004 |
$0.92 |
$-28.42 |
-96.9% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
192 |
0.004 |
$0.67 |
$-4.32 |
-86.5% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
10 |
0.046 |
$0.47 |
$-2.64 |
-84.8% |