| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
428 |
0.997 |
$426.58 |
$71.80 |
+20.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
359 |
0.935 |
$335.83 |
$28.73 |
+9.4% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
552 |
0.358 |
$197.79 |
$30.94 |
+18.5% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
200 |
0.944 |
$188.40 |
$8.38 |
+4.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
239 |
0.745 |
$177.91 |
$-0.10 |
-0.1% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
244 |
0.715 |
$174.16 |
$50.62 |
+41.0% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Yes |
223 |
0.625 |
$139.29 |
$-13.37 |
-8.8% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
118 |
0.991 |
$117.27 |
$80.05 |
+215.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
209 |
0.539 |
$112.63 |
$0.94 |
+0.8% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
73 |
0.984 |
$71.96 |
$4.46 |
+6.6% |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.957 |
$48.07 |
$3.32 |
+7.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
49 |
0.982 |
$47.82 |
$3.82 |
+8.7% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
364 |
0.115 |
$41.91 |
$-163.95 |
-79.6% |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? |
Yes |
49 |
0.385 |
$18.86 |
$-3.92 |
-17.2% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
Yes |
16 |
0.799 |
$12.44 |
$4.15 |
+50.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
12 |
0.805 |
$9.64 |
$0.36 |
+3.9% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? |
No |
5 |
0.998 |
$4.99 |
$0.34 |
+7.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? |
Yes |
5 |
0.911 |
$4.56 |
$0.26 |
+6.0% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.840 |
$4.20 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.697 |
$3.48 |
$0.10 |
+3.0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
5 |
0.495 |
$2.48 |
$-0.07 |
-2.9% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
226 |
0.004 |
$1.01 |
$-36.18 |
-97.3% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
230 |
0.003 |
$0.69 |
$-28.64 |
-97.6% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
10 |
0.056 |
$0.57 |
$-2.54 |
-81.7% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
192 |
0.003 |
$0.48 |
$-4.51 |
-90.4% |