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Trader leaderboard/Diplopia2

Diplopia2

0x272c7b12c4b372b6d0931aed641b1e4eec0f7f07
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$395
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$137
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+5.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
82%
78W / 17L · 107 open
Win Return (30d)
55%
111W / 91L
Trades (30d)
202
across 31 markets · ~7 per market
EV / position
+$23.25
avg win $58 · loss $41
Profit Factor
2.60
$642 won / $246 lost
Reward / Risk
1.42
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$68
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $7,455 · all-time $538,623

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 56.4% 226W/175L 137 $44,406
🏛 Politics 83.3% 35W/7L 9 $3,908
💵 Economy 76.9% 10W/3L 6 $1,828
🤖 Tech 0.0% 0W/5L 3 $774
🎬 Culture 1 $7

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

33 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? Yes 2,836 0.770 $2,183.62 $-217.19 -9.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Yes 1,580 0.165 $260.70 $-95.29 -26.8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes 434 0.565 $245.03 $16.74 +7.3%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? Yes 718 0.262 $187.65 $-37.15 -16.5%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Yes 232 0.575 $133.32 $-32.04 -19.4%
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? No 200 0.640 $128.00 $0.05 +0.0%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 578 0.212 $122.45 $94.40 +336.5%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 400 0.305 $122.20 $-21.00 -14.7%
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes 213 0.414 $88.21 $-1.17 -1.3%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? No 2,500 0.034 $85.00 $-231.98 -73.2%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? Yes 100 0.805 $80.50 $16.50 +25.8%
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 193 0.395 $76.14 $29.09 +61.8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? Yes 229 0.290 $66.47 $-29.79 -31.0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No 119 0.485 $57.86 $-12.53 -17.8%
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? Yes 100 0.500 $50.00 $-2.00 -3.8%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No 200 0.215 $43.00 $-21.00 -32.8%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? No 134 0.320 $42.88 $0.40 +0.9%
Will Clavicular visit Russia in 2026? Yes 66 0.410 $27.06 $20.46 +310.0%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 146 0.180 $26.28 $-21.79 -45.3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 250 0.095 $23.75 $-19.75 -45.4%
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes 221 0.105 $23.17 $-9.15 -28.3%
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes 98 0.170 $16.61 $0.98 +6.2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 200 0.080 $15.99 $-29.98 -65.2%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 50 0.250 $12.50 $4.00 +47.1%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 203 0.044 $8.95 $-10.57 -54.1%