PnL (30d)

−$22

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$18

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

60%

21W / 14L · 6 open

Win Return (30d)

56%

23W / 18L

Trades (30d)

41

across 12 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$2.16

avg win $12 · loss $16

Profit Factor

0.73

$58 won / $80 lost

Reward / Risk

0.73

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$52

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	56.2% 226W/176L	139	$44,543
🏛 Politics	86.5% 32W/5L	9	$2,913
💵 Economy	70.0% 7W/3L	6	$1,338
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/3L	3	$269
🎬 Culture	—	1	$7

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

32 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	2,836	0.770	$2,183.62	$-217.19	-9.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	1,580	0.175	$276.50	$-79.49	-22.3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	434	0.505	$219.04	$-9.25	-4.0%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?	Yes	718	0.260	$186.21	$-38.58	-17.2%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?	Yes	314	0.565	$177.32	$-38.90	-18.0%
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	200	0.635	$127.00	$-0.95	-0.7%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	400	0.307	$122.80	$-20.40	-14.2%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Yes	578	0.211	$121.88	$93.82	+334.4%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?	Yes	100	0.905	$90.50	$26.50	+41.4%
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	213	0.410	$87.36	$-2.02	-2.3%
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	193	0.395	$76.14	$29.09	+61.8%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	2,500	0.027	$67.50	$-249.48	-78.7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	119	0.465	$55.47	$-14.91	-21.2%
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	100	0.505	$50.50	$-1.50	-2.9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	Yes	229	0.205	$46.98	$-49.28	-51.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	134	0.305	$40.87	$-1.61	-3.8%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	200	0.155	$31.00	$-33.00	-51.6%
Will Clavicular visit Russia in 2026?	Yes	66	0.410	$27.06	$20.46	+310.0%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	146	0.185	$27.01	$-21.06	-43.8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	250	0.095	$23.75	$-19.75	-45.4%
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	221	0.105	$23.17	$-9.15	-28.3%
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	98	0.170	$16.61	$0.98	+6.2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	200	0.080	$15.99	$-29.98	-65.2%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	50	0.245	$12.25	$3.75	+44.1%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes	203	0.044	$8.95	$-10.57	-54.1%