PnL (30d)

+$7,398

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$1,005

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+12.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

78%

1,189W / 343L · 1,656 open

Win Return (30d)

57%

1,809W / 1,379L

Trades (30d)

3,188

across 24 markets · ~133 per market

EV / position

+$822.02

avg win $1,735 · loss $319

Profit Factor

6.79

$8,676 won / $1,277 lost

Reward / Risk

5.43

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	78.4% 1,691W/465L	62	$306,413
🏛 Politics	100.0% 79W/0L	17	$43,628
💵 Economy	100.0% 74W/0L	13	$36,673
₿ Crypto	100.0% 6W/0L	9	$6,004

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	163,268	0.165	$26,939.28	$14,120.10	+110.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	75,503	0.295	$22,273.26	$7,247.04	+48.2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	13,173	0.275	$3,622.60	$755.79	+26.4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	31,213	0.065	$2,028.87	$-630.92	-23.7%
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	No	2,674	0.625	$1,671.25	$538.62	+47.6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	Yes	41,432	0.029	$1,222.25	$-1,164.82	-48.8%
Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	5,594	0.205	$1,146.68	$-43.18	-3.6%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	7,490	0.115	$861.35	$-62.53	-6.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	24,189	0.028	$665.19	$44.77	+7.2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	Yes	13,147	0.045	$598.19	$-58.49	-8.9%
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	8,679	0.055	$477.33	$4.39	+0.9%
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	630	0.675	$425.25	$63.69	+17.6%
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	991	0.395	$391.44	$27.34	+7.5%
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	1,732	0.145	$251.17	$-2.12	-0.8%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	Yes	1,005	0.205	$205.95	$47.06	+29.6%
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	650	0.280	$182.00	$8.12	+4.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August?	Yes	20,148	0.007	$141.04	$-188.24	-57.2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	Yes	6,721	0.015	$100.82	$-23.24	-18.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?	Yes	5,369	0.013	$72.48	$-53.48	-42.5%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	860	0.050	$43.02	$-87.44	-67.0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	744	0.048	$35.34	$27.26	+337.2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	1,532	0.006	$9.96	$-2.30	-18.8%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	10,504	0.001	$5.25	$-786.51	-99.3%