PnL (30d)

+$140

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$2

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

—

no reliable basis

Win Resolved (30d)

93%

492W / 39L · 15 open

Win Return (30d)

93%

505W / 39L · 2 open

Trades (30d)

546

across 263 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

+$0.55

avg win $3 · loss $42

Profit Factor

1.21

$811 won / $671 lost

Reward / Risk

0.08

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$124

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	83.5% 7,017W/1,385L	2586	$71,765
⚽ Sports	—	129	$1,971
🌤 Weather	90.3% 243W/26L	126	$589
🏛 Politics	95.2% 378W/19L	70	$8,890
🎬 Culture	94.9% 390W/21L	62	$2,884
💵 Economy	—	19	$1,562
🤖 Tech	—	3	$56

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

159 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	683	0.645	$440.54	$419.20	+1964.0%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	400	0.405	$162.00	$82.00	+102.5%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	Yes	200	0.460	$92.00	$75.33	+452.0%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	400	0.115	$46.00	$-34.00	-42.5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	200	0.213	$42.70	$40.45	+1800.3%
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	100	0.355	$35.50	$-14.50	-29.0%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July?	Yes	200	0.165	$33.00	$16.33	+98.0%
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	100	0.285	$28.49	$24.33	+583.8%
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	100	0.125	$12.50	$8.33	+200.0%
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	100	0.115	$11.50	$7.33	+176.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	24	0.450	$10.80	$8.62	+395.0%
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	100	0.095	$9.50	$5.33	+128.0%
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?	Yes	200	0.044	$8.80	$-7.87	-47.2%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	13,752	0.001	$6.88	$-422.86	-98.4%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	12,132	0.001	$6.07	$-373.06	-98.4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 6?	Yes	22	0.265	$5.77	$3.79	+191.5%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	10,996	0.001	$5.50	$-338.13	-98.4%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	10,996	0.001	$5.50	$-338.13	-98.4%
Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?	Yes	200	0.025	$4.90	$-95.10	-95.1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	683	0.006	$4.10	$-17.25	-80.8%
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?	Yes	200	0.018	$3.70	$-12.97	-77.8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	15	0.230	$3.45	$2.66	+337.0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	5,121	0.001	$2.56	$-157.47	-98.4%
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	200	0.013	$2.50	$0.25	+11.3%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3,729	0.001	$1.86	$-1,862.64	-99.9%