PnL (30d)

+$1,677

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$297

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

—

no reliable basis

Win Resolved (30d)

92%

1,108W / 92L · 1,830 open

Win Return (30d)

73%

2,197W / 831L · 2 open

Trades (30d)

3,030

across 319 markets · ~9 per market

EV / position

+$15.53

avg win $48 · loss $826

Profit Factor

1.51

$4,980 won / $3,303 lost

Reward / Risk

0.06

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$247

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	83.5% 7,027W/1,390L	2586	$71,765
⚽ Sports	—	129	$1,971
🌤 Weather	90.3% 243W/26L	126	$589
🏛 Politics	95.2% 378W/19L	70	$8,890
🎬 Culture	94.9% 390W/21L	62	$2,884
💵 Economy	—	19	$1,562
🤖 Tech	—	3	$56

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

136 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	866	0.645	$558.58	$531.51	+1964.0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	160	0.525	$84.00	$52.00	+162.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	160	0.465	$74.40	$42.40	+132.5%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	866	0.075	$65.38	$38.32	+141.6%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	200	0.213	$42.70	$40.45	+1800.3%
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	100	0.285	$28.49	$24.33	+583.8%
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	100	0.125	$12.50	$8.33	+200.0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	866	0.013	$11.69	$-15.37	-56.8%
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	100	0.115	$11.50	$7.33	+176.0%
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	100	0.095	$9.50	$5.33	+128.0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	14,618	0.001	$7.31	$-449.49	-98.4%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	12,998	0.001	$6.50	$-399.69	-98.4%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	11,862	0.001	$5.93	$-364.76	-98.4%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	11,862	0.001	$5.93	$-364.76	-98.4%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	866	0.005	$4.76	$-22.30	-82.4%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	866	0.004	$3.90	$-23.17	-85.6%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	5,987	0.001	$2.99	$-184.10	-98.4%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	4,595	0.001	$2.30	$-2,295.20	-99.9%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	866	0.003	$2.17	$-24.90	-92.0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	866	0.003	$2.17	$-24.90	-92.0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	160	0.013	$2.16	$-29.84	-93.3%
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	200	0.011	$2.10	$-0.15	-6.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	160	0.013	$2.00	$-30.00	-93.8%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	160	0.013	$2.00	$-78.00	-97.5%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	866	0.002	$1.30	$-25.76	-95.2%