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Trader leaderboard/0x04B3F873B003eba3774dF1E5e47A370d27Ee1B7E-1774574222951

0x04B3F873B003eba3774dF1E5e47A370d27Ee1B7E-1774574222951

0x04b3f873b003eba3774df1e5e47a370d27ee1b7e
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$400
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$5
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+10.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
74%
236W / 84L · 16 open
Win Return (30d)
73%
241W / 88L · 7 open
Trades (30d)
336
across 203 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$2.06
avg win $8 · loss $14
Profit Factor
1.56
$1,114 won / $714 lost
Reward / Risk
0.56
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$139
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $9,971 · all-time $256,483

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 66.0% 1,383W/711L 1218 $29,359
🌤 Weather 65.1% 56W/30L 56 $1,306
🏛 Politics 54.5% 48W/40L 44 $889
🎬 Culture 46.0% 29W/34L 25 $427
💵 Economy 25.0% 1W/3L 8 $151
🤖 Tech 3 $68
₿ Crypto 100.0% 1W/0L 2 $33

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

190 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5? No 49 1.000 $49.45 $14.06 +39.7%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 58 0.825 $47.60 $32.60 +217.3%
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 49 0.962 $47.09 $27.09 +135.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes 146 0.295 $43.04 $13.04 +43.5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 5? No 40 1.000 $39.98 $19.98 +99.9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 5? Yes 37 1.000 $36.60 $19.82 +118.1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 5? No 36 0.999 $36.33 $16.33 +81.6%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 69 0.485 $33.30 $3.30 +11.0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 5? No 33 0.985 $32.83 $12.83 +64.2%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Yes 33 0.985 $32.82 $22.82 +228.2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 109 0.298 $32.55 $21.68 +199.6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes 40 0.795 $31.84 $10.98 +52.6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on August 5? No 32 0.975 $31.45 $11.45 +57.3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5? No 33 0.945 $30.98 $10.98 +54.9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 5? No 31 1.000 $30.75 $10.75 +53.8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 5? No 37 0.835 $30.59 $10.59 +52.9%
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? Yes 30 0.885 $26.38 $22.85 +646.3%
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? No 29 0.885 $25.49 $0.49 +2.0%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 30 0.835 $25.38 $10.38 +69.2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 5? No 29 0.830 $24.41 $4.41 +22.1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 40 0.590 $23.53 $0.62 +2.7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 6? No 39 0.595 $23.33 $3.33 +16.7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 5? No 48 0.480 $22.86 $2.86 +14.3%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 47 0.485 $22.67 $2.67 +13.3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 5? Yes 22 0.998 $22.18 $2.18 +10.9%